Trump wants Iran to say what’s on the table. The opposite is true as well.
Frustrated Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran’s Leadership Divisions Frustrate Efforts to Make Progress in Talks
Another round of debate erupts in public between hard-liners and more moderate officials who want to negotiate with the U.S.
Quick Summary
- Internal tensions among Iranian leaders over U.S. talks are complicating President Trump’s efforts to secure a diplomatic win.
- Hard-liners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are putting pressure on top officials who are more focused on the economy, making negotiations difficult.
- The absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who appears to be secluded, exacerbates divisions and leaves Iran without a final arbiter.
Tensions between Iranian leaders over talks with the U.S. spilled into the open this week, highlighting how difficult it will be for President Trump to secure the diplomatic win he wants to end the war.
The disagreements were apparent in the first round of talks earlier in April. Mediators said Iran became vague when pressed by the U.S. for specifics on issues it had said it was willing to discuss, people familiar with the matter said.
It’s now becoming clearer that there are deep divisions within the country’s leadership over how far to go to strike a deal with the Americans—a concern as mediators scramble to arrange a second round of talks after the U.S. and Iran abandoned a planned meeting midweek amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will go to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Friday on Fox News. Vice President JD Vance will be on standby to travel in case there is progress in the negotiations, she said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad Friday, but Iranian state media said no meeting was planned.
Tasnim, a news service affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused the U.S. of telling stories.
“There is basically no negotiation with the Americans at the moment, and Mr. Araghchi’s trip to Islamabad is not to negotiate with the Americans,” Tasnim said.
During the fighting, Iran’s leadership showed unity in its political messaging and maintained tight command and control over its armed forces. But that cohesion appears to be fraying as it turns to the task of securing sanctions relief by cutting a deal with the U.S., which likely will require making difficult concessions.
A tug of war is pitting newly empowered hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard—the paramilitary force tasked with defending the regime and running the war—and elsewhere in the political system against top officials who are more focused on repairing Iran’s battered economy.
Hard-line leaders in Iran are increasingly putting pressure on its representatives not to compromise. They have taken to the domestic press and social media to blast Iran’s top negotiators—parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi—for engaging in discussions about Iran’s nuclear program in the first round of talks.
Mahmoud Nabavian, an ultraconservative lawmaker who was part of the Iranian delegation in Pakistan, openly attacked the way Ghalibaf led the talks.
“In the Pakistan negotiations, we made a strategic mistake,” he told the Student News Network, an official news agency aligned with the hard-liners. “We should not have put the nuclear issue up for negotiation. By doing so, the enemy became bolder.”
Ahmad Vahidi, who leads the Revolutionary Guard, also has been opposed to compromising too much, people familiar with the matter said.
Differences within the Iranian government over how much to concede appear to be making it difficult for Iran to negotiate, analysts said.
The first round of talks went late into the night in Pakistan. At one point, Kushner stepped out to call Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who were about to watch a mixed martial arts fight in Miami, some of the people said. When he returned, the U.S. insisted that Iran agree to a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment, the people said. The talks ended later.
“The decision-making machine at the highest levels suffers from pause and hesitation,” said Mohamed Amersi, a Middle East expert on the Global Advisory Council of the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “The internal debate about what’s in Iran’s best interests delays the time it takes to reach a consensus.”
Iran’s political leadership, speaking in unison Friday, was quick to reject any division. “In Iran, there are no extremists or moderates,” Ghalibaf said. “We are all ‘Iranian’ and ‘revolutionary.’” Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian issued almost identical statements.
It’s hard to draw firm conclusions about the opaque inner workings of Iran’s leadership. The hard-line bluster could be aimed at getting the U.S. to back off its blockade of Iranian ports or make other concessions at the negotiating table.
“Different centers of power are trying to extract better concessions before any formal meeting,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security forces and an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “It is performing reluctance in order to increase leverage.”
Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response
In its latest live updates the Journal reports Iran’s Armed Forces Command Threatens Response if U.S. Blockade Continues
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the highest operational command center of Iran’s armed forces, issued a warning to the United States. It said if the “aggressor U.S. military” continues what it described as a blockade, looting and piracy in the region, it will face a response from Iran’s armed forces, according to the official news agency, IRNA.
“We are ready and determined, while monitoring enemy movements and behavior in the region,” the Iranian army said in a statement.
Separately, the spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Defense, Reza Talaei-Nik, said that the needs of the armed forces continue to be met and the production of equipment, weapons and ammunition hasn’t stopped. He added that the ministry maintains a strategic reserve for any circumstances.
How We Got Here
President Trump sided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hard-liners in the Administration, Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Ted Cruz, and other against the advice of JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Trump’s own military experts.
Netanyahu wanted war, presented a ridiculous plan to Trump on how easy it would be, and like a fool, Trump fell for it.
Pre-war, nuclear stockpiles were on the table. Obama’s agreement for Iran to enrich uranium for 15 years was on the table.
But the die was cast. Netanyahu pressed for war and got it.
In the initial phase of the war, Israel and the US killed the Iranian leaders who were willing to negotiate. Trump bragged about that.
And now Trump has to deal with hard-liners instead of the moderates the US was negotiating with ahead of the war.
A War of Choice
This was a war of choice, and an idiotic one. It was supposed to be over in a few days, then a few weeks.
Epic Fury started February 28, 2026.
Since then we have had a dozen pronouncements by Trump that the US won the war, was about to win the war, did win the war, would soon win the war, and the war was won.
The Current State of Affairs
The strait is closed, no oil is getting through.
Trump brags and complains about the strait being closed depending on what mood he is in. He demands Iran open the strait, says he doesn’t care if the strait is open, demand allies help him open the strait, and tells allies he does not want or need their help to open the strait.
Trump said he will triple up use of minesweepers even though 4 US minesweepers are headed to the scrap heap (literally), as I type. Trump removed them from the region, most likely because Iran would sink them. But they are also obsolete.
X is an amusing cesspool of commentary on who is winning the blockade wars, 5D thinking, oil priced in yuan, and who is winning because the other side is losing more.
Cheerleading aside, it will take years before all of the physical infrastructure damage is fixed. The politics of the region will never be the same.
The US is 100 percent certain to lose influence in the region. But the 5D thinkers are proclaiming the US will have some hold on China from this. It’s ridiculous.
Is there Any Point to the Peace Talks?
Actually yes. As long as there are talks, the war is on hold.
If war starts again with Trump’s threats to “smash Iran back to the stone age” or “end Iran’s civilization”, Iran is sure to attack all the desalinization plants in the region.
The US wants to know what Iran will put on the table. But that’s damn one-sided. What is the US willing to put on the table?
Why should Iran believe anything the US says? How can there be any trust when dealing with the world’s biggest liar?
If Iran gave up its nuclear stockpile, it would have no leverage. So why should Iran agree to give it up? What believable offering will Trump put on the table in return?
Would Anything Surprise Me Here?
No.
Trump could be goaded into a ground war. That’s what Israel wants. So for that reason alone we cannot rule it out. A desperate Trump seeking to influence elections is also possible.
Some suggest Hegseth’s military purge is leading to that outcome. It’s possible.
It’s possible there is a deal in three weeks. It’s possible a deal takes 10 months or longer.
The lack of trust that lends itself to some more extreme actions. But arguably the most likely scenario is a long dawn out negotiation affair.
Historical Flashback
The US and North Vietnam argued over the shape of the negotiation table for approximately ten weeks, spanning from November 1968 to mid-January 1969, in a dispute often called the “battle of the tables”.
The argument involved intense haggling over whether the table should be square, circular, or rectangular, reflecting political struggles over seating and recognition.
- Timeline: The dispute began shortly after negotiations started in Paris in 1968 and continued until a compromise was reached in mid-January 1969.
- The Issue: North Vietnam wanted a round table to show equality among the parties, while the U.S. and South Vietnam wanted a four-sided table to distinguish between the two sides.
- The Solution: A compromise was reached involving a large round table with no sides, accommodating four smaller, separate tables for the different delegations.
Who Is Negotiating Now?
Iran does not want Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner. Why should they?
Negotiations were underway then Trump decided to start the war.
It would not surprise me, and indeed it is my expectation that a battle this time will not be over the shape of the table but rather who gets to sit at the table.
Conclusion
As you can see, I have all questions and no relevant answers other than Iran has no reason to trust Trump or these negotiations.
That simple fact suggests there will not be a quick permanent solution to this mess.
Moreover, Trump’s repeat threats to “end Iran’s civilization” and other war crimes are hardly conducive to peace talks. Trump’s erratic and disturbing threats will only harden negotiations.
Both sides think they have an advantage here. But only one side has elections to worry about.
Regardless, as long as both sides think they have an advantage, we are essentially arguing over the shape of the negotiation table.
Addendum
While writing this post, this came up.
Trump Truth Social: I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
You cannot cancel a meeting that was never scheduled in the first place. As for cards:
Related Posts
April 4, 2026: Trump Threatens to Escalate Iran War, Says ‘Hell Will Rein Down’
Did Trump mean rain or rein? Who knows, but Hell is coming.
Reporter: You said that this is a small excursion, and you also said that this is a war, so what’s the deal?
Trump: It’s both. It’s an excursion that will save us from war, and the war will be, uh, for them, it’s a war. For us, it turned out to be easier than we thought.
Easier Than We Thought
I am sure glad this was easier than we thought.
April 27, 2026: Trump Warns “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight … God Bless Iran!”
If you thought Trump’s war crime threats would not get worse, you were wrong.
April 23, 2026: Trump Claims “Total Control of the Strait” Is There a Fact Check?
Let’s do a series of fact checks on control of the strait.
Did the US Decommission Minesweepers?
Yes, per Navy Times: The U.S. Navy decommissioned four of its last specialized Avenger-class minesweepers stationed in the Middle East between 2025 and early 2026.
These aging vessels (USS Devastator, Dextrous, Gladiator, and Sentry) were removed from service and sent for disposal, shifting to Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) equipped with drones for mine-countermeasure operations.
April 20, 2026: What Does CFR’s Brad Setser Say About Petrodollar Myth and Reality?
“The glory days of the petrodollar are over,” says Brad Setser CFR fellow.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
