Trump says he doesn’t fear political fallout from a prolonged war with Iran.
Threat to Blow Up Oman
Trump Has No Fear
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says He Doesn’t Fear Political Fallout From Prolonged War With Iran
President Trump said Iran was miscalculating if it thought he would soften his position to avoid a prolonged standoff with Tehran.
“They thought they were going to outwait me,” Trump said Wednesday at the start of a cabinet meeting at the White House. “He’s got the midterms [they thought]. I don’t care about the midterms. Look, what happened last night.”
Trump was referring to Ken Paxton’s victory in the Republican-primary runoff in Texas in which he defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn with the president’s endorsement.
He responded to criticism that he had steered the U.S. into an open-ended conflict in the Middle East, the sort of war that as candidate he had vowed to avoid. “I don’t call it a war,” Trump said. “I call it a conflict.”
Trump signaled that he was prepared to keep negotiating but didn’t exclude further military action. He said Iran’s economy was operating on “fumes” with “inflation at 250%.”
Asked later if he would accept a deal under which Iran and Oman would share control over the strait—through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes—Trump said the waterway must be open to everyone, although he said the U.S. will “watch over it.” He said that “Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up.” He later said of the Omanis, “Understand that. They’ll be fine.”
What happened last night is that Trump won a battle but will lose the war. Winning a primary is one thing, and an election is another.
Trump has previously cost Republicans at least four Senate seats and is expected to lose 3-5 more this election.
Demands, Demands
While the president struck an optimistic note during the cabinet meeting, saying that the Iranians were beginning to come around at the negotiation table, he again held out the possibility of additional military strikes. “If they won’t,” he said, pointing to Hegseth, “the man on my left is going to finish them off.”
But he also alluded to Iran’s demands that it receive billions of dollars in frozen funds if a new agreement is reached.
“We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money,” Trump said. “When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.”
Trump again appeared to make an Iran deal contingent on other Gulf states joining an expanded Abraham Accords, establishing or expanding diplomatic relations with Israel. Such an arrangement would be “historic if they do it,” he said before adding that “I think they owe that to us to be honest.” He first linked an agreement and the Abraham Accords in a social-media post last weekend
When the president turned to Steve Witkoff, his special envoy, for an update on that effort, Witkoff replied, “we are definitely pushing.”
“I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign,” Trump said.
Amusing Position
That last sentence is more than a bit amusing. Read it again.
“I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign,” Trump said.
If Iran doesn’t sign, there cannot be a deal. But that’s not the way Trump thinks.
He states demands, changes them daily, then calls it a deal.
On Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile
Today, Trump rejected the idea of allowing Iran to turn over its stockpile of enriched uranium to either China or Russia.
“No,” he replied when asked about the possibility. “That would not make me comfortable.”
Two days ago, Trump was fine with the idea. He even promoted it on Truth Social.
Tomorrow? Who knows?
Memorandum of Understanding
Per Iran:
- Strait of Hormuz commercial transit restored to pre-war levels within 30 days under “permanent Iranian authority”
- For this restoration, the management of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be handled in cooperation with Oman through tolls named “environmental protection fees,” with US military vessels excluded
- US Navy fully lifts the Strait of Hormuz blockade
- US military forces withdraw from Iran’s vicinity
- IRGC Navy adds “hostile countries” vessels remain strictly prohibited from transit even after signing
- Final deal within 60 days approved as binding UN Security Council resolution
The MFA said on Monday “no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement,” making the deal structurally impossible.
Abrams Accord
A Bad Idea
Andrew Day – American Conservative
The “deal or war” binary is a false choice, and a good thing too, considering how elusive a deal has proven to be. Iran does not pose a threat to the American homeland, and America already has enough problems to worry about on the domestic front. Mr. President, it’s time to come home.
I agree with Andrew Day in theory. But politically speaking, Trump has already pissed off one wing of MAGA, the wing that wants no more wars.
The other wing wants more wars and would be pissed off by a weak deal.
This is why Trump keeps vacillating daily, if not hourly.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States will not sign the Abrams Accord.
That is already clear. And that’s the point.
That new requirement came from Senator Lindsey Graham, who is itching for more war.
But .. But .. But
Is a Deal Near?
I am following the same thing. Oil acts as if there is a deal.
If there is a deal, it will be on Iran’s terms, not Trump’s mandates.
Meanwhile, As Talks Bog Down, Trump Cites Great Progress that Iran Denies
Talks hang on the same issues, nuclear stockpiles, sanctions, and mistrust.
No Winning Options
As I have commented for months, Trump has no winning options. Iran can wait Trump out.
Iran knows Trump lacks resolve.
Notably, the longer this has gone on, the more demands Iran has made. Before the war, Trump had a deal on the table with Iran involving uranium. Trump turned that down.
That once potential deal will never surface again.
I am confident Iran can wait out Trump. It’s not even close. However, the market seems to think a deal is at hand. Let’s see.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
