The war expands to Iraq with Ukraine on deck as Saudi Arabia retaliates with the US.
Iran Takes War Initiative
Axios reports Iran launches missiles at U.S. base for first time since Trump paused strikes
Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles toward a U.S. military base in Jordan on Tuesday in what U.S. Central Command described as an “attempted surprise attack.”
What they’re saying: Trump told Axios on Monday that the U.S. was in “very deep talks” with Iran but warned that he would return to “very strong military action” if diplomacy failed.
CENTCOM said Tuesday evening that U.S. and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq in response to what it described as more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks over the previous 72 hours.
Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry later confirmed it participated in the strikes, saying they were coordinated with CENTCOM.
CENTCOM said the attacks on U.S. forces were unsuccessful.
Deep Bullsheet
Was this an attempted surprise attack or a surprise attack?
Regardless, it is clear that the idea of “very deep talks” with Iran is nonsense.
Joint Strikes on Iraq
The New York Times reports U.S. and Saudi Arabia Target Iranian Proxies
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia said they had carried out joint airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq.
The United States and Saudi Arabia said they had carried out joint strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq early Wednesday local time, and the Iranian military said that it had fired missiles at American military targets in the Middle East.
The attacks followed several days without full-blown fighting between the United States and Iran. Saudi Arabia, however, faced dozens of drone attacks targeting its oil facilities this week. And the Iranian-allied Houthi militia in Yemen said it had launched missiles at a Saudi oil tanker on Tuesday, its latest attack since announcing a blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.
Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport
Also consider Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport
Iran considered attacking a seaport in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian ship, but a flurry of diplomacy has calmed the situation for now, according to Iranian and Western officials.
Ukraine, which has accused Iran and Russia of supporting each other’s military operations, struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, killing a civilian sailor. Iranian officials vowed to retaliate.
Some people briefed on the intelligence said that they expected Iran to fire a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine, to make a symbolic point but cause relatively little damage. Other officials said the target was probably one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
Any missile fired from Iran into Ukraine would be a dramatic escalation and risk triggering a wider war, given the tensions between the two countries over Iran’s alliance with Russia.
Iranian officials said they hoped the conflict would end with their retaliatory strike, but Western officials warned that it was difficult to predict how Ukraine would respond.
On Sunday, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, called Ukraine’s attack a violation of the U.N. charter aimed at dragging Europe into Iran’s war with the United States. In a social media post, he said the incident “CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.”
But on Tuesday, after Ukrainian diplomats sought to ease tensions, Mr. Araghchi spoke by phone with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha.
After the call, Mr. Araghchi said in a post that Mr. Sybiha had described the attack on the cargo ship as unintentional. “Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable,” Mr. Araghchi wrote. “There must be restitution for losses.”
Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst who is close to Iran’s government and is based in the country, said that while some Iranian political figures had called for striking back at Ukraine, others had advised restraint.
“Ukraine is not a small, insignificant country. It has warfare experience, and logistical support from America and Europe. We won’t gain anything by creating a new front in the war,” Mr. Rahmati said in a phone interview from Tehran.
Still, it was not clear how long the tensions would remain in check.
Mideast Powder Keg
The Mideast remains a powder keg.
Oil, as one might expect, rose on the news. West Texas Intermediate is $81.85, up $2.60. Brent is $84.40, up $2.32.
Those are mild reactions. So, the market does not view this surprise attack as a major escalation.
However, the surprise strike does make a shambles of Trump’s lie that Iran is desperate for a deal.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
