So much for the “rogue judge” theory unless you now blame Trump for appointing them.
One Page Ruling
The unsigned one-page ruling of UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE, ET AL. v. CALIFORNIA, ET AL. was accurate and brief.
The application for stay presented to JUSTICE JACKSON and by her referred to the Court is denied. The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court’s preliminary injunction. And the equitable factors applicable for obtaining emergency relief from this Court do not favor a stay.
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH, concurring. In my view, based on the briefing the Court has received at this interim stage, there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service’s statutory authority. See 39 U. S. C. §401(2). But applying the rule in the 2026 elections would be arbitrary and capricious in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections. See 39 U. S. C. §3001(m); 5 U. S. C. §706(2)(A). For that reason, I concur in the denial of the application for stay.
Stay Denied
Stay denial means the Supreme Court would not remove the block put on by lower courts.
Kavanaugh did not agree outright, but on the basis of time, “because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections.”
Note that Kavanaugh only cited a “fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service’s statutory authority.”
Three Trump-Appointed Justices Rule Against Trump
Importantly, all three Trump-appointed justices (Gorsuch, Barrett, and Kavanaugh) voted against Trump.
That’s how absurd his executive order was.
Ridiculous 8-Page Dissent
Alito and Thomas contend that the plaintiffs lacked standing.
The dynamic duo goes on to blame the delays on litigation, saying the challengers “bear a substantial share of the blame” for the late timing of the post office rules.
What?
Trump purposely delayed releasing the rules, hoping the courts would toss challenges because there was nothing to challenge. And that is exactly what happened.
As soon as the post office issued plans, the plaintiffs filed again and won in two lower courts, then ultimately the Supreme Court.
Had Trump issued plans along with his preposterous EO, this nonsense would have been settled months ago.
Sanity Prevails
Oh well. Sanity prevailed 7-2.
We have seen a lot of Supreme Court sanity, predicted well in advance.
Police State Irony
The irony of the above Tweet is stunning. The Supreme Court acted to prevent a Trumpian police state.
Fearless Predictions
On January 1, 2026, I made Fearless Predictions, Ten Key Events to Expect in 2026
#1: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Reciprocal Tariffs
Expect a 6-3 margin against Trump, possibly 7-2. I rate this a 75 percent chance.
Then If he loses, then there is about a 60 percent chance of at least some of the money will have to be refunded.
Trump will moan the SC is killing the best economy in history. He will also say that the ruling will have no impact at all. This is illogical of course, but seriously, expect both statements.
Trump will pursue other avenues of doing the same things with mixed success (using the word success in terms of what Trump wants, not what’s good for the country).
#2: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Birthright Citizenship
Expect a 7-2 vote against Trump. 9-0 would not be a surprise.
I rate this a 90 percent chance.
#3: Trump will lose his Supreme Court battle over the right to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Expect a 6-3 vote against Trump. I rate this a 80 percent chance.
Predicted Sanity Prevails
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote (I Told You So)
Forgive me for bragging, but I got every justice correct.
June 29, 2026: Supreme Court Blocks Trump From Firing Fed’s Lisa Cook (I Told You So)
The Supreme Court makes a big exception for the Fed.
I expected 6-3, Kavanaugh provided the fifth vote.
June 30, 2026: Trump Loses Birthright Citizenship Case 6-3, Barrett and Kavanaugh in Majority
This was easy but I did get Gorsuch wrong. [Note see addendum on Gorsuch. His dissent almost seemed like an apology].
It appears Trump made some pretty good picks. Barrett and Kavanaugh both ruled against Trump in at least two major cases.
Democrats tried to block Barrett over abortion. That would have been a huge mistake.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
