Endless wars don’t end by definition. So what about Iran?
The Iran War Is Over: Writes Ken Klippenstein
Please consider The Iran War Is Over by Klippenstein the day after the election.
The Democratic tsunami isn’t just washing away living fossils like Susan Collins, but U.S. military contractor profits as well.
Shares plummeted today as investors anticipated a retreat from the Iran war. (This despite the fact that the Dow shot up by about 3 percent today — its best day since April.)
Then there’s Big Oil, which also sees the writing on the wall: the Strait of Hormuz will re-open, depriving them of their excuse for price gouging — the most overlooked scandal this year, as I’ve written.
[Mish: I disagree about price gouging but let’s continue]
Trump said:
“Well, we’re going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important. They’ve already called and they want to work with me.”
So you can expect the Trump-Mamdani bromance to expand and maybe even produce some concessions.
At the top of the concessions list will be Iran.
So not only is there not going to be a nuclear strike on Iran — a fiction propagated by Tucker Carlson this week (which Trump actually dismissed in the Politico interview) — but as I reported on Monday, it’s unlikely there will be any major strikes on Iran now.
Trump also gave Vance’s post criticizing the Iran war his blessing, saying: “I thought it was good.”
That does not mean it will be easy for Trump to extricate himself before a Democratic Congress is seated in January.
Just yesterday, Iranian armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi laid out five conditions for Iran:
- Ending fighting on “all fronts,” including Lebanon and Gaza;
- Lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds;
- Pay reparations;
- Recognize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz;
- Provide security guarantees against future attacks.
There is an immediate and possible negotiating package that Iran offered on Monday, but it represents a hardliner position that is a nonstarter for Washington. The U.S. “diplomatic” position is that Iran must give up its nuclear aspirations and capabilities first, something that Trump doesn’t really care about.
What he does care about is money and business, so some combination of ending the naval blockade, cancelling sanctions, freeing up money for Iran, and allowing Iranian oil sales to resume is most likely on the president’s mind.
And then there’s actually ending the Iran war, as in ceasing to see the Islamic Republic as an enemy of the United States and reversing 47 years of being stuck as the American Satan. But endless war never quite ends, that’s why it’s called endless war.
Remember that only Joe Biden actually “ended” a Middle East war, in Afghanistan. Except that it is now another character in the endless war game. Obama may have pretended to end the Iraq fighting, but some American forces stayed in Iraq and they built up in Syria to fight ISIS. In his second term, Donald Trump does seem to have withdrawn those forces, closing the largest U.S. base in Iraq at Erbil and closing the Syrian bases at Qasrak and al-Tanf.
That is, if American forces actually withdrew. If experience is any guide, U.S. fighting just continues if only in more secret form. Now, instead of “boots,” there’s covert operations, special operations, normal operations taking place in the shadows, and even loafers on the ground (that’s the very definition of “endless” war).
And for every Afghanistan or Iraq or Syria, something takes its place: there’s been a massive buildup in Jordan, forces stay in Kuwait, and there’s a new and growing American presence in Israel. “Over-the-horizon” operations against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan continue from Qatar, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and the other Stans. There is never a real end, and certainly the military is not bugging out because it can say that it is leaving democracies behind, or even stability.
But who knows? Maybe someday there will be a Trump hotel in Tehran.
Energy Prices
- West Texas Intermediate WTIC Crude is down to 88.65 as I type.
- Brent is 96.05.
- AAA Diesel is 6.2564
- AAA Regular Gasoline is 4.1003
All of these prices are lower than a month ago but higher than a year ago.
If Trump goes after Iran, the prices will go back up,
So are we in an endless stalemate?
It would behoove Trump to work out a deal, but the price of a deal may have risen.
I don’t pretend to know what will happen. But I agree with Ken Klippenstein that it’s unlikely there will be any major strikes on Iran now.
The country is sick of the war and Trump. Perhaps even Trump realizes that, even if he won’t mention it.
Importantly, the warmongers like Hegseth (perhaps on his way out the door) certainly won’t be pushing it.
Final Comments
Trump says he’s glad he did it and would do it again.
He needs to explain to the world what he gained besides a total repudiation in the election and higher prices for everyone.
Trump’s Legacy: A stupid, arrogant man started a stupid war. The result was one of the biggest political wipeouts in History.
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Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
