Other than strait re-opened, much of this is still speculation. But here’s the discussion.
Statement by Iran
In the name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful.
The esteemed people of Iran are hereby informed:
The Islamic Republic of Iran, under the guidance of its martyred leader, has consolidated its superiority over the American-Zionist enemy. Under the direction of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic (may God protect him), with the support of the entire Iranian people and the devoted efforts of the fighters of Islam, and following several months of difficult and intensive negotiations, the text of a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the negotiations to end the war (the Islamabad negotiations) between Iran and the United States was finalized on the evening of June 14, pursuant to a resolution of the Supreme National Security Council.
According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently beginning tonight. In addition, the naval blockade against Iran will be lifted immediately and in full.
This Memorandum of Understanding will be formally signed on Friday, June 19.
Negotiations toward a final agreement will be deferred until after the other side has fulfilled its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding. The Islamic Republic of Iran expresses its appreciation to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the State of Qatar for their efforts.
Peace and the mercy and blessings of God be upon you.
Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council
Speculative Terms
BREAKING: Details of the proposed U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding have reportedly emerged, outlining a three-phase process that begins with an immediate end to hostilities and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Under the reported framework, Iran would receive $24 billion in frozen funds in two stages, sanctions waivers for energy exports, and negotiations on broader sanctions relief. Iran would in turn reaffirm its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
The proposal also reportedly includes discussions on a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, future nuclear arrangements, the removal of sanctions and international resolutions, and a final agreement backed by a UN Security Council resolution.
Lebanon?
Key Points
Who Voted for What?
Money to Iran?
I agree with This Take
Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.
This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.
Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump.
As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.
Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.
If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran’s nuclear ambitions out of reach, I’ll acknowledge it. It’s just too early to make that judgment.
Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal.
But in some ways, Trump’s deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump’s approach.
Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue.
Trump’s claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel’s campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So let’s hope we see the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump’s team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.
US Power Diminished
Sanction Relief
That’s more humiliation for Trump.
Iran Won
For more discussion, please see Iran Confirms Deal! Trump Says Congratulations to All, Strait Open
The Yea-Sayers were right. Official signing June 19 in Switzerland.
There is no other realistic way to spin this.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
