Trump won a military battle, but that was never in doubt. Overall, the US much weaker.
Strategically Weaker US
Grok “Outcome: US tactical win, fragile diplomatic truce. Long-term depends on talks starting Friday.”
A tactical win and strategic losses can both be correct views.
The above strategic vs tactical discussion happened before I noticed this assessment by Bloomberg writer Alex Wickham.
Please consider Trump’s Iran War Leaves the US Looking Weakened to Adversaries by Alex Wickham.
The ceasefire in Iran has reinforced views among both adversaries and the NATO alliance that President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Tehran regime marks a strategic setback, bolstering China and Russia while squandering American strengths, according to people familiar with the thinking across capitals in Europe and the Middle East.
While Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority, they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said. The tensions in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which culminated in Trump threatening to leave the alliance, have left lasting doubts over his commitment to its defense.
The two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, will also dent Trump’s credibility as a negotiator and likely further deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from making concessions in Ukraine, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about their assessments of the war conducted by their ally.
“Although Iran has suffered huge physical damage and much loss of life, it emerges strategically stronger,” former UK National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts said. “The regime has survived. It has shown the massive leverage control of Hormuz gives them.”
“It’s certainly not a victory in that the United States has nowhere achieved any of its military objectives,” Long Island University Director of International Relations Dalia Fahmy told Bloomberg TV. “Actually, the war has cost the United States much more than anticipated.”
Iran wants a permanent control over the waterway going forward and after the war ends, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations who asked not to be identified because of sensitivity of the information. [Mish: There is nothing truly sensitive about that. Trump even wants in on the tolls.]
In the Gulf, there is particular alarm among some countries that their initial pleas to the Trump administration not to proceed with the conflict went unheeded, according to people familiar with their thinking. And Gulf officials may see walking away with the Tehran regime in place as even worse, they said, with concern over Trump’s unpredictability prompting them to strengthen alliances elsewhere, they said.
More broadly, Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s civilization will make it harder for the US to paint itself as a benign hegemon, in contrast to Russia and China, which the West routinely accuses of war crimes and human rights abuses, they said. They warned this may push so-called “middle ground” countries toward Moscow and Beijing, suggesting it may take years of diplomacy to undo.
The Iran campaign has been a “serious setback” for Trump, said Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai who previously advised the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “When he comes to Beijing now, he’ll be frustrated and will realize that China will have to play an even larger role,” said Wu, who spoke before the ceasefire was announced.
“There’s been a huge amount of damage, economic human cost that we haven’t really calculated yet,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Bloomberg TV. “Relations in the region have been set back, I would say, by a decade if not two.”
Trump Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory, but Who Really Won the Iran War?
All of the above points by Wickham are both well-stated, and obvious.
It was the subject of my post earlier today Trump Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory, but Who Really Won the Iran War?
If the US accepts Iran’s 10 demands, Trump reportedly has, including a toll booth, Iran will have won.
Trump now says it’s fake news that he has agreed to Iran’s terms.
But here you go.
Trump Eyes Hormuz Tolls as a “Joint Venture” With Iran
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.” “It’s a beautiful thing”
The EZ- Pass Solution
That would sure be “beautiful” especially if the EZ-PASS tolls go straight to a Trump-controlled account.
Complete Capitulation
How can anyone not come away with the view that Trump totally capitulated given the joint venture proposal (whether you think that will happen or not)?
I believe the above person means Pakistan.
Trump was looking for any way out, and had to use Pakistan as an intermediary to do so.
Unfortunately the truce has been shattered already.
Truce Shattered
Trump is dispatching his negotiating team, led by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to Islamabad for talks this weekend.
“The first round of those talks will take place on Saturday morning, local time, and we know we look forward to those in-person meetings,” said Leavitt.
Leavitt said reporting that the Strait is closed is false. “It has been relayed to him privately that that is what’s taking place, and that these reports publicly are false.”
Strait Not Yet Open
It’s actually 50 percent better than reported above.
Three ships have passed through the strait.
More Humiliation for Trump Is Ahead
Iran can and has kept the strait closed. It is doing so with military ships that were allegedly destroyed.
Trump’s only options are to break the truce, make more concessions to Iran, or delay again with oil prices heading back up.
These negotiations can last a long time. Either Trump makes major concessions or it’s ‘déjà vu all over again’ in a few weeks.
Meanwhile, the strait is not open. But be grateful that most of the bombing has stopped, for now.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
