Many see this as a sign of no deal. I suggest something else.
Trump Ups Terms for a Deal
Deal in Limbo
Crow or Lobster?
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman says It’s Crow, Mr. Trump, Not Lobster
Only two questions remain regarding the U.S. war with Iran. One, how big a plate of crow will President Trump have to eat to end this conflict with at least some achievements? And two, will he tell us the crow he’s eating is lobster or filet mignon?
What Trump also never asked was: What if Iran responds to U.S. airstrikes by trying to hit the oil infrastructure of America’s Arab Gulf allies, the U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain?
That is exactly what Iran did. Among other things, with drone and cruise missile attacks in March, Reuters reported, Iran “knocked out 17 percent of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (L.N.G.) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia.” It added, “The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of L.N.G. for three to five years.”
Now you understand why the Arab oil producers absolutely do not want to see Trump restarting the war, and how Tehran is using that as leverage in its negotiations with Washington.
A Rebuttal to Friedman
So yes, Trump must eat his crow. But so must the strategists, the columnists, the conference-circuit wise men who spent a generation telling Americans that Iran was uniquely beyond diplomacy, uniquely dangerous, uniquely deserving of pressure without limit — and who are now watching, with apparent surprise, as that pressure detonates in the Strait of Hormuz, in the ruins of LNG terminals, across the global economy, and ultimately at gas pumps throughout the United States.
The crow on that table is large. It is not lobster. It is not filet mignon.
And Thomas Friedman helped prepare it.
Trump in 2008
Rubio’s Plea to the UN
The US cannot or is unwilling to win the war militarily.
So Trump wants the UN, whose primary function is to maintain international peace and security, to start a war on behalf of the US and Israel.
Nothing Has Changed
The fact that Trump upped the terms of the deal is just a sign of more Trump delusion that he can win the war with demands.
It’s also a sign of huge pushback by Israel and US warmongers who don’t want a deal at all.
This does not change the fact that Trump still has the same three options he has had since the ceasefire started on April 7 2026.
Trump’s Three Options
- Military Escalation
- Wait Iran Out
- Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
Military Escalation Option Is Flawed
A military operation to remove Iran’s nuclear material could take years with no guarantee of success. Indeed, I would expect this to fail just like we failed in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
The US production of defense systems is running low. The US and the Mideast is defending against $30,000 drones with much more expensive options that are in short supply.
Importantly, it is Iran, not the US, with huge escalation threats. Iran, if attacked, could go after desalinization plants in the region. Literally, the entire nation of Saudi Arabia would have to evacuate in days if its desalinization plants were hit.
Trump seems resigned to the above facts, which is why a ceasefire is in place.
Wait Iran Out Option is Flawed
Iran was supposed to fold in three days, then it was three weeks. Now, no one is sure what Iran’s storage capability even is.
Now strangely enough we are discussing 2.5 years.
Trump has learned nothing from history. Iran has much higher tolerance for pain than Trump expected.
Never before has a blockade worked. It inevitably increases the resolve of those being attacked. In this case, Trump and Israel killed the Iranian leadership who were willing to negotiate.
Meanwhile, as long as the strait is closed, any decline in oil futures is temporary. Trump is getting hammered on gasoline prices and farmers are getting hammered on diesel and fertilizer.
Inflation across the board has soared. US voters overwhelmingly are against the war.
Waiting Iran out is not an option because Iran has chosen to wait the US out. And Iran has a much higher tolerance for pain.
Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
When you throw away every option that doesn’t work, you are left with options that will work. That is option three, no matter how distasteful.
Deal capitulation is option the market expects as well. You can see that in the price of oil.
This is not just US vs. Iran. Strategic Oil Reserves are running low worldwide. Fertilizer, helium, natural gas, and food are all impacted.
There is immense global pressure on Trump to make a deal, any deal that will have oil flowing again.
Trump thinks he is being cute by increasing his demands. But Iran will either laugh or up its demands in response.
It is Trump who is desperate for a deal, not Iran.
Trump’s Big Problems
Trump has two big problems.
The first is presenting a plate of cow pies as lobster. The second is Trump will have alienated both wings of the Republican parties (those who were against the war and those who don’t want it to end).
Trump is vacillating on a deal because he is struggling with losing options.
But there is no other choice, and Iran sees that. So, expect a plate of cow pies presented as lobster.
The Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
For more on the likely terms of a deal, please see Hello. We Are Again Discussing the Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
