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How Long Do We Have Before COVID-19 Runs Its Course?

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Published on: March 19, 2020

As with all viral diseases, especially influenza, the COVID-19 virus is no exception when it comes to it having a timeline from when it first appeared, to that area having no new cases.  So, we can pretty much predict how long we are in for having to deal with the pandemic from examining when it first appeared in Wuhan in Hubel Province, China and the time they say they have no new cases.

The COVID-19 virus first appeared in Wuhan in early December 2019, but did not become a pandemic there until the last week of December, so we are told from the Chinese.

Since they were reluctant to admit they had an uncontrollable disease that was killing people on a massive scale at first, we can assume the disease first appeared in the middle of the month.

As of the last 7 to ten days, China has reported a drastic reduction in new cases of COVID-19 to reporting they have no new cases as of today 03/19/2020.

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What this tells us is that this disease has a span of about two and a half months to totally run its course from the first case reported, to the day when no new cases are reported.

The first case of COVID-19 appeared in Washington state on January 15, 2020, so if we go by the two and a half month timeline for the disease to run its course we would be looking at the middle of April to have drastic reductions in new cases.

By the last week of April, the US should be reporting no new cases.

As it is right now, the US is in the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic where many are infected with the virus and perhaps millions more will become infected in the next 2 weeks.

In the first two weeks of April, we should start seeing a drastic reduction in new cases and experience no new cases in the last part of the month.

The actual end of the pandemic here in the US could come even sooner since we have the most advanced medical science in the world.

In any case, it looks like things will start improving drastically by the middle of April.

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