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If You Think A Housing Bottom Is Close, Think Again!

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Published on: July 30, 2022

Pending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June

New home sales are recorded at signing. Existing home sales are reported at closing. Pending home sales in June is a leading indicator of the existing home sales reports for July and August.

The National Association of REALTORS® reports Pending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June

Key Highlights 

  • Pending home sales declined 8.6% from May as escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers.
  • Pending sales retreated in all four major regions, with the West experiencing the largest monthly decline.
  • Compared to the previous year, contract signings dropped by double digits in each region as pending sales in the West were down by nearly a third.

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales courtesy of Trading Economics annotations by Mish

Existing home sales courtesy of Trading Economics annotations by Mish

Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist commented “”Home sales will be down by 13% in 2022, according to our latest projection”

I’ll take the under, way under, although that huge spike in January will help the 2022 average, albeit with diminishing impact each month.

I don’t have precise monthly numbers for the first half of 2021 but my eyeball average estimate for 2021 is about 6250. If so, the first half of 2022 is down about 8.5 percent vs the average of 2021.

Housing Synopsis 

Recession Underway

Cyclicals (durable goods and housing) tell us that a recession is underway.

For discussion, please see A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession

There is no reason to expect a reversal in housing.

I believe a Recession Started in May.

Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock

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