Key question: Has the Trump administration thought any of this through?
Iran Rejects Trump’s Final Offer
The Washington Post reports Trump announces naval blockade of Iran after Islamabad talks yield no deal
When Vance briefed reporters shortly before leaving the Pakistani capital Sunday, he suggested the U.S. remained open to a diplomatic solution, but only if Iran accepts a proposal that he described as “our final and best offer.”
“We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms. I think that we were quite flexible,” Vance told reporters around 6:30 a.m. local time. He did not respond to shouted questions about whether fighting would resume in what had become an increasingly unpopular and economically damaging war for Trump and the world.
Final Offer Details
Q: What was the final offer?
A: It was not detailed anywhere that I can find.
Five Point Iran Response
Five Point Response Translated
- 1/Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side. My colleagues on the Iranian delegation Minaab168 raised forward-looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.
- 2/ America has understood our logic and principles, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not?
- 3/ We consider every mirror to be another method of authority diplomacy, alongside military struggle, for upholding the rights of the Iranian nation, and we will not for a moment cease our efforts to consolidate the achievements of the forty days of Iran’s national defense.
- 4/ I am also grateful for the efforts of our friendly and brotherly country, Pakistan, in facilitating the process of these negotiations, and I send my regards to the people of Pakistan.
- 5/ Iran is a body with 90 million souls, from all the heroic people of Iran who, following the advice of the Supreme Leader and by taking to the streets, supported their children and sent us on our way with their blessings—for this, I am grateful, and to my colleagues in these intense 21-hour negotiations, I say: well done, God strengthen you. Long live and enduring be our dear Iran!
Naval Blockade
Truth Social: So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.
The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
Apr 12, 2026, 6:53 AM
International Waters
It’s quite the hoot for Trump to be moaning “Every Law in the book is being violated by them.”
Trump bombed an Iranian school, threatened to take Greenland by force, instituted illegal reciprocal tariffs, illegally assonated foreign leaders, extorted European allies, and broke signed treaties with Canada and Mexico.
Trump is the world’s biggest liar and hypocrite. And the strait is not even an international waterway.
Key Maritime Zones & Distances
- 0–12 Nautical Miles (Territorial Sea): Sovereign territory of the coastal state.
- 12–24 Nautical Miles (Contiguous Zone): Coastal state has limited rights for customs, immigration, and taxation.
- Up to 200 Nautical Miles (Exclusive Economic Zone – EEZ): Coastal state controls economic resources (fishing, oil).
- Beyond 200 NM (High Seas): Considered international waters.
The strait is 21 nautical miles at the narrowest. Every bit is controlled by either Iran or Oman. So, there are no international waters.
There is the right of innocent passage, established under UNCLOS Articles 17–32. Innocent passage allows foreign ships to navigate through a coastal state’s territorial sea without authorization, provided it is continuous, expeditious, and not prejudicial to the state’s security. It applies to all ships, including warships, but requires submarines to navigate on the surface.
Iran signed but did not ratify UNCLOS Articles 17–32. If it did, it could just withdraw from the treaty. Since Trump can withdraw from treaties, why can’t every other nation?
Regardless, there are no international waters in play, even by right of passage, since Iran never ratified the agreement.
How Wise Is a Blockade?
By definition, nothing gets through (oil, fertilizer, natural gas, aluminum etc.).
Trump is already dealing with a massive inflation reaction to his stupid war.
A blockade will make matters worse.
The futures market reaction tonight will tell us how serious the market takes this bit of foolishness.
What About China?
How would this administration react if China sent military exports for its tankers carrying oil?
That is another key risk to this announcement.
US Intelligence Says China Will Soon Deliver Air Defense Systems to Iran
Yesterday, I commented US Intelligence Says China Will Soon Deliver Air Defense Systems to Iran
Trump responded “If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?”
But what can Trump do about it?
Trump is nothing but endless bluffs at this point.
Trump is in the self-created mess of not being able to do anything about anything without making a big mess somewhere else.
A successful blockade would increase oil prices, fertilizer prices, natural gas prices, jet fuel prices, aluminum prices etc.
And it would risk China sending military escorts or blocking rare earth minerals.
An unsuccessful blockade would make Trump look like a paper tiger.
Iran’s goal is clear. Punish Trump as much as possible regardless of internal costs. Iran will do just that.
How Will China Respond?
My guess is rare earth export controls. But it could be military escorts and export controls.
Either way, China has a checkmate alternative to any action by Trump that it doesn’t like. And China won’t like this poorly contrived military blockade idea.
If the futures don’t react negatively tonight, it’s because they think Trump is bluffing or China will force Trump to back down.
Progression of Events
- Trump starts war against advice of military experts, JD Vance, others.
- Key goal quickly becomes opening the strait that was open before the war started.
- Trump begs allies to help us open the strait
- Trump says “We don’t care if the strait is open.”
- We will “Bomb Them Back to Stone Ages” if strait not open.
- 48-hour reprieve extended twice.
- “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” if strait is not open.
- Negotiations to open the strait.
- Negotiations fail.
- Blockade the strait to keep it shut.
Deck Stacked Against Trump
Trump has the audacity to proclaim Iran has no cards.
Realistically, it’s obvious that Trump hopes to fill an inside straight. However, the cards Trump needs have been removed from the deck.
Trump has no winning options. At this point, he is so boxed in that it’s hard to figure out what his least damaging option is.
Seriously Flabbergasted
I am seriously flabbergasted, and that takes a lot.
Look at this comment from “Vice Chair, The Carlyle Group; Chair, Rockefeller Foundation Board; PhD; ADM, USN(Ret.) fmr Supreme Allied Commander at NATO”
It is stunning that the “Vice Chair, The Carlyle Group; Chair, Rockefeller Foundation Board; PhD; ADM, USN(Ret.) fmr Supreme Allied Commander at NATO” has no idea how global markets function!
The idea that allies will be no worse off is ludicrous. Wow. Just wow. Is Trump taking advice from him?
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Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
