It’s not orders per se. But it’s similar to the “intelligence” scam that started this mess.
Israel’s New Intelligence Claim
The Wall Street Journal reports Israel Believes Iran Moved Nuclear Centrifuges Into Pickaxe Mountain
Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program.
Israel passed along the intelligence findings to the U.S., saying the centrifuges were transferred to the Pickaxe Mountain site last fall after the 12-day war in June when American and Israeli strikes pummeled Iran’s three main nuclear sites.
As Israel’s war aims have increasingly diverged from the U.S.’s, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to persuade President Trump to resume all-out attacks on Iran to further set back Tehran’s weapons programs and rebuilding effort. The U.S. has stepped up attacks in the past 10 days, and Trump said the U.S. was prepared to attack Pickaxe Mountain.
Iran’s foreign minister and the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, didn’t respond to requests for comment. The White House referred The Wall Street Journal to interviews Trump gave last week about the site.
Pickaxe is “a possible target for a nice big fat shot,” Trump told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt on July 13. It was the first time he has explicitly talked about Pickaxe as a target, although he has previously mentioned an Iranian underground location buried in granite.
Known as Mount Kolang in Iran, Pickaxe has been under surveillance by the U.S. and Israel for years, and what little is known about Iran’s activities at the site suggests it would present challenges to any airstrikes. Located near one of Iran’s main nuclear installations, Pickaxe was commissioned as an underground replacement for an Iranian centrifuge-assembly facility that was badly damaged after a 2020 explosion, which might have been an act of sabotage.
Activity has continued there steadily for the past 15 months, with truck traffic, tunnel reinforcements and a security perimeter springing up, said the Institute for Science and International Security, a think tank on nuclear and nonproliferation issues. There was also work around an older tunnel network that dates from 2007, which Iran has since sealed up.
“It is plausible that Iran moved centrifuges into the tunnels” in Pickaxe, said David Albright, the institute’s president.
Experts estimate that the subterranean complex reaches 300 to 450 feet deep beneath solid rock, with enough room to accommodate several nuclear-related facilities.
Pickaxe wasn’t considered a priority to bomb last year during the Israel-Iran war and hasn’t been targeted in the round of fighting with the U.S. that began on Feb. 28. But officials and experts have long worried that Iran could use the tunnels to store or build nuclear equipment and to set up a small enrichment facility for producing fissile material.
An Israeli military official familiar with the targeting effort expressed concern that the recent war’s airstrikes hadn’t sufficiently targeted nuclear-weapons-related work, saying that there was more work to be done, including at Pickaxe Mountain.
Is the Claim Plausible?
Yes, it is plausible. But why are we here?
We are here because Israel persuaded Trump to start this stupid war on phony “intelligence” that Iran would easily fall and there would be a mass uprising to topple the regime.
As a direct result, Israel and the US coordinated in a military attack that killed moderate Iranian leaders who were in fact willing to negotiate on nuclear weapons.
Going back further, Obama negotiated a deal that Trump’s own top general and Secretary of Defense said Iran was honoring.
What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal?
Please consider What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
Trump’s First Term Flashback
- Trump’s US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- All US European allies: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s top general Gen. Joseph Dunford: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis: Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal
During his first term, President Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, stated that Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), despite President Trump’s strong opposition to it.
Key Details on Mattis’ Statement and Context:
- Testimony (October 2017): Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Mattis said, “I believe that [Iran] fundamentally [are] in compliance with its nuclear deal”.
- Contradicting Trump: Mattis, a career hawk, advised that staying in the deal was in the U.S. national security interest, putting him at odds with President Trump’s public criticism of the agreement as an “embarrassment”.
Iran only began stepping back from JCPOA limits (e.g., higher uranium enrichment levels, reduced IAEA access) after Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018 and reimposed sanctions—not before.
Mattis Contradicts Trump
NYT Dateline October 3, 2017: Mattis Contradicts Trump on Iran Deal Ahead of Crucial Deadline
Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, asked whether the defense secretary thought holding onto the nuclear pact is in the interest of the national security of the United States. Mr. Mattis, a retired Marine general, paused before replying: “Yes, senator, I do.”
General Dunford testified at the same hearing alongside Mr. Mattis, and while he did not take a position on the Iran deal, his description about whether Tehran is violating the accord was at odds with the administration’s talking points. He said Iran “is not in material breach” of the agreement and that it had “delayed the development of a nuclear capability by Iran.”
That is all on the congressional record.
IAEA Says Iran Abiding by Nuclear Deal
April 19, 2019: IAEA Says Iran Abiding by Nuclear Deal
“Iran is implementing its nuclear commitments,” said Yukiya Amano, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The agency has had access to “all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit.”
Obama’s Nuclear Accord Agreement
- Iran will give up about 14,000 of its 20,000 centrifuges
- Iran will give up all but its most rudimentary, outdated centrifuges: its first-generation IR-1s, knockoffs of 1970s European models, are all it gets to keep. It will not be allowed to build or develop newer models.
- Iran will give up 97 percent of its enriched uranium; it will hold on to only 300 kilograms of its 10,000-kilogram stockpile in its current form.
- Iran will destroy or export the core of its plutonium plant at Arak, and replace it with a new core that cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium. It will ship out all spent nuclear fuel.
- Inspectors will have access to all parts of Iran’s nuclear supply chain, including its uranium mines and the mills where it processes uranium ore. Inspectors will also not just monitor but be required to pre-approve all sales to Iran of nuclear-related equipment. This provision also applies to something called ‘dual-use’ materials, which means any equipment that could be used toward a nuclear program.
That’s the agreement U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, General Joseph F. Dunford, and the International Atomic Energy Agency all said Iran was honoring.
Synopsis
Obama fashioned an amazing peace deal with Iran that US allies, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, General Joseph F. Dunford, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Arms Control Association all said Iran was honoring.
That deal was the one big achievement of Obama. Trump tore it up.
I did not care for Obama then, or now. But I give credit to Obama for the JCPOA. The deal may not have been perfect, but it was workable, with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Trump took the deal and unilaterally tore it up against the specific advice, on the Congressional record by U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and General Joseph F. Dunford.
And now, based on “advice” from Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warmonger Senator Lindsey Graham, and against the advice of current top military experts, Trump launched this mad war.
Genocide
Feelings
President Donald Trump’s administration explicitly stated that the military action was launched because the President had a “feeling,” based on what they described as impending threats, that Iran was preparing to strike U.S. assets in the region.
Trump Has His Marching Orders
Trump now has his marching orders from the same “intelligence” community that told him this war would be easy.
So, what are Trump’s feelings today?
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
