Samsung’s planned shipments in July have been halved. We will see more manufacturers make similar announcements as the bullwhip crashes the upstream supply chain.

Samsung Cuts Shipments In Half

Samsung's planned shipments in July have been halved. We will see more manufacturers make similar announcements as the bullwhip crashes the upstream supply chain. https://t.co/Tsc82rQz8x

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) June 16, 2022

Food and Energy Strength

Tanker and bulk haul food and energy – two parts of the economy which are experiencing record demand and surges.

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) June 16, 2022

Supply Chain Inflation Has Peaked

Same in scrap steel. Utter freefall since April 20th

— Lewis M. Johnson (@TrendsTailRisks) June 16, 2022

Scrap steel in the gutter. Many things headed that way.

Retail Sales Flounder in May With Negative Revisions in April

As noted on June 15, Retail Sales Flounder in May With Negative Revisions in April

Retail sales fell 0.3 percent month over month with inflation adjusted sales down 1.2 percent.

Unfortunately for the Fed this does not include rent, energy, or food.

CPI Weight

• Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER): 23.816%
• Rent of Primary Residence: 7.278%
• Energy 8.295%
• Food: 13.361%

Those four items are 52.75 percent of the CPI. The rent combo alone is over 31 percent of the CPI.

Even if the price of electronics were top fall 25 percent, it would not make a dent in the CPI.

Meanwhile, recession looms. For discussion, please see Recession Watch Update, Where Do Things Stand After the Huge Fed Hike?

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Addendum – Key Reader Comments

• Casual Observer: I’m in tech and lead times are way shorter than advertised. We received some switching equipment we weren’t due to get until fall. Orders now getting filled due to fear of POs being cancelled.
• Billy: At least in my industry, ocean freight has had a huge impact on steel over the past 2 years. Just like this article is talking about. I’ve been calling it “Freight Density.” The cheaper your product is per pound, the more ocean freight is influenced. For example, during the peak of the C-virus shipping debacle, I heard Nike paid $80,000 for a 40′ container to cut in line and get on a shipping vessel. When you divide that by 4,800 pairs of shoes, that’s $16/pair. When they probably average $50/pair in profit it’s not a big deal. That was a worst case scenario. We were importing steel goods and paying $23,000/container or $1,045/ton. Average costs prior to the virus were $3,000/container or $136/ton. It’s now $9,000 or $409/ton.

Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock