This is the start of a live blog. Comments generally welcome.
Note: I put new comments at the end.
Bloomberg comments and In concur “When Americans vote today, they’ll be delivering a verdict on a presidential comeback that brought them persistent inflation and an unwanted war against Iran that’s making affordability among the campaign’s top issues. Once the polls close, the country will soon shift focus to who follows Trump in 2028.”
Polls Close In Kentucky and Indiana.
The lead Image is from New York Times Live Blog.
That’s a free link.
My first comment is I expect the polls to be correct and Democrats will pick up at least 6 Senate seats.
Had I seen an AtlasIntel set of polls that were favorable to Democrats across the board including Iowa, I may have projected seven.
4:56 PM Mountain
Nate Silver Blog: What early results tell us in Kentucky
We had Trump +15 KY-06 as Lean Democratic in our model. Right now, the early results are not great for Republicans — Republican Ralph Alvarado is considerably underperforming even the Senate nominee Andy Barr. We’ll see how it goes as more votes come in, but the early results say that a flip is certainly on the table right now.
5:00 PM Mountain
Blame Game
I suggest 100 percent of the blame goes to Trump. Blaming Thune is idiocy.
5:08 PM Mountain
Via Nate Silver: The NYT has called the race out of the gate for him. Not much of a need to update here as he was 99.7 for re-election in FLIPR. 1/1 so far LOL.
5:12 PM Mountain
Interesting results in Kentucky
5:15 PM Mountain
NBC: Ossoff winning 58% of independents, 13% of Trump voters
CNN: Ossoff winning 20% of non-MAGA Republicans
Hello Miami
Don’t get excited by this yet. It’s encouraging but very early
Nate Silver: We should remind people, though, that there’s likely at least some Blue Mirage in Florida, because it generally reports its early votes first, whereas the Election Day vote was much redder. It’s interesting though that there’s only a 2-point gap between Jolly and Nixon right now.
5:20 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: FL-09, a redrawn seat, has Democratic incumbent Darren Soto in a tight race to win re-election.
After redistricting, the new seat voted heavily for Trump, but Darren Soto is winning Puerto Rican-heavy Osceola County by 28, and is holding his own in Indian River County. This will be a race to watch.
5:22 PM Mountain
Georgia Senate Called for Democrat Ossoff
As Expected
Florida Pasco County
Again this is early. But wow.
5:22 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: Yeah, no results reported from South Carolina yet, but once it gets started it tends to be fairly quick. We rate each state from 1 (slow) to 5 (fast) and we classify SC as a 4, so on the faster side.
Silver Blog: Georgia gubernatorial Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms seems to only be underrunning Jon Ossoff in his Senate race by around 4.
If this keeps up, Georgia might get its first Democratic governor in 24 years.
Silver Blog: I’m waiting for South Carolina governor not because I think Democrat Jermaine Johnson has a real shot, but because if Alan Wilson wins by less than 6 points that means polls underestimated Democrats strongly in what should have been an R+10 race (at least).
Results should start trickling in soon. Polls closed at 7PM.
5:22 PM Mountain
This would be a real shocker
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: Georgia on my mind
Among my friends and colleagues, the Georgia governor’s race has been discussed mostly in terms of the implications for John Ossoff’s 2028 presidential prospects.
Keisha Lance Bottoms now seems like the clear favorite to win there, and if she does that will mean Ossoff can run for president without spotting Republicans a Senate seat. But it’s worth also paying attention to the other stakes in this race. Georgia is the third-largest (after Texas and Florida) state to have refused Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion, and with a Democratic governor (and presumably some pickups in the state legislature) they might change their mind on this.
Georgia is also a state that did *not* comply with Donald Trump’s request to engage in mid-census redistricting and with Bottoms in the governor’s mansion that won’t change.
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog:
We’ve got two House flips in deep-red seats brewing already in Trump +17 IN-05 and Trump +15 KY-06, and some more Democratic overperformances in FL-22 and FL-09. Early results, but this is not consistent with a universe where polling massively undershoots Republicans.
Mish: This is early but fingers crossed
5:52 PM Mountain
Totally on the Wild Side
I had this as a 40 percent chance. Way more than anyone else I am aware of.
Georgia Senate Called
6:00 PM Mountain
What Could Be Better?
SC Update
Texas Fireworks!
6:17 PM Mountain
South Carolina Update
6:23PM Mountain
Loving This!
North Carolina Called
6:23PM Mountain
This was a given
Victory in FL-14 as called in this corner
Probability of Sweep 91 Percent
South Carolina Projected for Democrats!
6:46 PM Mountain
I am very pleased to report that idiot Darline Graham is blowing up.
Democrats Will Win Ohio
7:01 PM Mountain
7:10 PM Mountain
NBC News calls GA-Gov for Keisha Lance Bottoms
Silver Blog: Vivek Ramaswamy is getting cooked
Not that it should be a surprise, but Vivek Ramaswamy is getting absolutely clattered in Trump +11 Ohio, after seeing his campaign implode following one of the most disgusting advertisements any politician has ever aired. I won’t go into the details again for everyone here, but forget ideology and forget party for a minute — it’s good when people who do things like that get punished by the electorate.
Silver Blog: The night is young, but it’s a bloodbath
This is an absolute massacre for Republicans. It might be the worst environment seen in the last 40+ years. They’re losing South Carolina, on track to lose Texas, and are getting the rug pulled out from under them with Hispanics and working-class whites. At this point, they need to pray Hinson hangs on when polls close, or they could be looking at a 55-seat Democratic Senate.
I am going to take a break here for a bit to grab a bite to eat, but this is over.
7:38 PM Mountain
It’s over. Texas and Kansas are flipping.
Now I am wondering what’s next.
Silver Blog: Checking in on the House
The Needle projects 244 House seats for Dems, which would be close to FLIPR Deluxe’s prediction of 241.
Please Recall the Mish Projection of 243
Update: Nate Silver I should note that the Needle projection on D House seats is now up to 246. And prediction markets put the over/under at around 257. It’s possible that the Needle is a bit too conservative in cases where the wave becomes clear this early.
Calling Elon Musk
8:01 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: The last time Elon Musk tweeted was 5 hours ago, wonder what he’s up to… For reference, he spent $474 million to support Republicans this cycle (making him the largest individual political donor).
Note: When I say “Silver Blog” it is someone other than Nate Silver.
When I say “Nate Silver” the comment was by him
Texas Wow
8:02 PM Mountain
This was not on my radar
Silber Blog: Democrats are about to sweep the statewide offices in Texas, and they may also win the Texas State House as things stand. Incredible night
Silver Blog: On Iowa — Josh Turek looking like the clear favorite against Ashley Hinson, which would take Democrats to 55 seats when the dust settles (edit: IF Peltola wins in Alaska, which…we’ll see soon enough! She’s favored based on these results.)
Not Understanding the Message
8:14 PM Mountain
8:54 PM Mountain
Texas Senate Projected for Democrats
Ossoff Message
Trump Con Job
9:00 PM Mountain
Democrats Projected to Win Every Statewide Seat!
Texas May Go Blue – Everywhere
9:02 PM Mountain
Did Money Hurt?
9:12 PM Mountain
Texas Flips Governor
9:14 PM Mountain
It’s the first time a Democrat has won the governorship in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990…
…36 YEARS AGO!!!!!
Georgia Secretary of State
9:51 PM Mountain
The AP has called the Georgia secretary of state election for Penny Brown Reynolds (D). A Democrat will oversee the 2028 presidential election in this crucial swing state.
Wild Results in Mississippi
9:54 PM Mountain
Oh-07
Who gets the blame?
9:59 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: I’ve been monitoring conservative spaces on social media, and while some large-scale influencers are trying to deflect the blame away from Trump, the rank and file accounts on conservative subreddits and Twitter are directing their anger at Trump. It feels like the beginning of a preference cascade on the right where the floodgates are finally opening.
Kansas
10:01 PM Mountain
A bit late on reporting this
Nate Silver: NYT calls Kansas for Hamilton
So that’s a minimum of 5 D pickups. Land doesn’t vote, but with Democrats winning in some of these bigger states, it makes for an impressive-looking map.
Key Point on Democrat Governors and Progressives
10:11 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: AP/NYT have called OH-Gov for Acton, too. Add that to the wins in Georgia and Texas, and a huge share of the population, maybe 70 percent, are going to live in states with Democratic governors.
Nate Silver Blog: Looking at Democrats doing better in North Carolina, Georgia, and even Texas than in traditionally much bluer states like Minnesota and Michigan is a reminder that candidate quality matters a lot. Flanagan and El-Sayed both winning comfortably in the scheme of things, but decidedly weaker than candidates who don’t have their left-factionalist branding.
A Fetterman-Proof Majority
10:23 PM Mountain
Totally Wild
Democrats Ahead in Mississippi
11:12 PM Mountain
If my understanding where the remaining votes are is correct Democrats will flip Mississippi
First Full Dummymander
1:06 AM Mountain
Silver Blog: North Carolina Democrats run riot
North Carolina Democrats have absolutely torched the GOP. They’ll end up 1 seat short of a State House supermajority that was a very real, live ball earlier in the night. They’ll also win a majority of the House seats on that map, yielding our first full dummymander of the cycle. They’ll simultaneously somehow fall just short in the State Senate.
Nate Silver: As well as Democrats have done, how many dummymanders are we going to get? TN-4 sort of counts, I think? Florida had the most potential for one, but (as always, basically) it was the relatively strongest state for Republicans. In NC-3, Republican Greg Murphy is only ahead by a tenth of a point, although the NYT Needle seems fairly confident he’ll hold on.
Mish Waiting
1:08 AM Mountain
Waiting for Alaska and Mississippi
Silver Blog: One Mississippi note (with caveats that this is from Ballotpedia and I’m not a legal expert): Mississippi doesn’t require automatic recounts in close elections, nor can candidates request a recount. So a recount would probably require some kind of lawsuit.
TN-04 Shocker
1:10 AM Mountain
OH-10
TN-04: MAJOR UPSET ALERT
1:19 AM Mountain
Silver Blog: According to the Tennessee Secretary of State’s results, with everything unofficially counted and reporting, incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais — a scandal-plagued incumbent whose win probability was 99.5% in Silver Bulletin’s model (and 99.7% in ours, which literally rounded up to 100% in datawrapper) — may have just lost in the redistricted, Trump +24 TN-04. Holy cow. This is potentially the single biggest upset I’ve seen in my life.
Misplaced Brains
1:28 AM Mountain
Mississippi Senate
1:44 AM Mountain
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
