Credit Jim Bianco at Bianco Research for the best analysis of the day.
Trump Rages at the Media
Truth Social: If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting “I surrender, I surrender” while wildly waving the representative White Flag, and if their entire remaining Leadership signs all necessary “Documents of Surrender,” and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn’t even close. The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!! President DJT
May 18, 2026, 8:40 AM
I count 125 words in the first sentence. Your results may vary slightly depending on how you treat U.S.A,. WSJ, and whether wasn’t is one word or two.
Zerohedge was quick to pick up on this. But Jim Bianco provides the analysis of the day.
Jim Bianco Analysis of Trump
Trump is VERY transparent. That post perfectly expresses his utter frustration.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not just a matter of will. We don’t have a sustainable military answer right now because we don’t have a defensive shield against asymmetric warfare (cheap drones and missiles), as Ukraine has against Russia.
When the U.S. launched Project Freedom roughly two weeks ago, three guided-missile destroyers were sent through the Strait to escort commercial shipping.
The Navy came under a sustained barrage of Iranian drones and missiles and intercepted 100% of the attacks.
Yet the defensive effort after just two days was extraordinarily resource-intensive. It nearly depleted the missile magazines of two Guided-Missile Destroyers and required support from more than 100 aircraft (F-35 fighters and attack helicopters). It costs an estimated $50–100 million to get just two commercial ships through safely over two days.
This model is completely unsustainable beyond a brief demonstration. The U.S. cannot realistically guarantee a perfect interception record against repeated sustained barrages.
All it would take is one drone or missile getting through, and the images of a burning American warship would be a major political disaster. Below, Trump isn’t raging at the media alone. He’s raging because we don’t have a cost-effective Military solution (money and lives at risk) to opening the Strait.
Compare Bianco’s analysis to the position of those who actually thought Trump’s blockade would end this war in a matter of days.
Bianco vs Robin Brooks, May 2
Comments From Today
War and Blockade Timeline
“The blockade was imposed with an anticipated timeline of ~13 days.”
Trump started the war on February 28, 2026. For those counting, that’s 80 days (two months, two weeks, six days).
The war was supposed to last three days. The 3-6 weeks.
As of today, May 18, 2026, the United States naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas has been in effect for 36 days, having officially begun on April 12, 2026.
Trump said the blockade would work in a few days. When it didn’t, the timeline became 13 days.
May 2 Flashback
Sixteen days ago, Robin brooks was bragging the blockade already worked!
And if only we had done this to Russia.
Robin Brooks has prematurely declared victory of sanctions many times.
Having followed Brooks for a long time on sanctions, he hasn’t been right once.
On September 19, 2023, I noted Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets
A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.
Now he’s back at it, saying we should have blockaded Russia, because the blockade already has worked.
Here we are 16 days later, with Trump fuming over the futility of the blockade to bring Iran to surrender.
Choking Like a Stuffed Pig
In Fox News interview on April 26, 2026 (on The Sunday Briefing), Trump said Iran’s oil infrastructure could “explode” in about three days due to the US naval blockade preventing exports.
“When you have lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system… if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships… what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth… And they say they only have about three days left before that happens.”
On April 29, Trump made this statement. “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told Axios.
Trump expected this to be over in three days.
No More Mr. Nice Guy
I made a note on April 29. Note “No More Mr. Nice Guy.” I forgot to put my note in caps. Apologies offered.
Here’s a nonsensical idea from 21 hours ago.
This is more transparent frustration.
The US has failed. Trump needs the cooperation of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE to attack Iran.
The odds of that are 0.00 percent. But hey, I have a graphic of how it would work if it did happen.
Space Force
Those are real, posted less than a day ago.
Trump envisions himself as Hans Solo. This is my video tribute of the day.
Bye Bye Fast Boats
United States Space Force
Mainstream media posts none of this idiocy.
The Clock Is Ticking
Please note “The Clock is Ticking”, mysteriously not in all caps.
Q: But what does the message imply?
A: Failure!
Earth to Robin Brooks and MAGA: How successful is the blockade at getting Iran to surrender?
The clock is ticking, implying another military threat. Trump is relying on military threats because the blockade was a miserable failure.
Arguably, the blockade is causing more damage to Iran than to the US.
But is the blockade causing more damage to Iran than the rest of the world? And who has an election concern, Trump or Iran?
One might expect MAGA fans to believe anything. But here’s Robin Brooks’ bio.
Robin Brooks is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, focusing on global growth, inflation, and capital flows. He’s frequently cited in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times, and regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg. Before Brookings, Brooks was the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, where he led macroeconomic analysis.
The blockade is already a success said Brooks. Just like he proclaimed sanctions on Russia a success.
Please see my May 2 post for more discussion of who is winning the blockade war.
Not to worry, Trump is now Hans Solo. Victory is thus assured.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
