Let’s discuss Trump’s claims and the solid evidence on fraudulent voting.
Trump’s Claims About Noncitizens Voting
The CATO Institute reports Trump’s Claims About Noncitizens Voting Are False. We Can Prove It.
This week, President Trump called on his party to nationalize American elections, an unconstitutional move that he said would be justified because of the danger of noncitizens casting ballots. “These people were brought to our country to vote, and they vote illegally,” he said.
No president has so baldly proposed to intervene in state elections, but the charge that noncitizens are illegally casting ballots is sadly commonplace. Elon Musk claims on X, without evidence, that significant numbers of illegal immigrants vote. Rudy Giuliani erroneously alleged that my home state, Arizona, had allowed “probably about 250,000” votes from noncitizens in 2020, despite the fact that Arizona has long required proof of citizenship to vote in state elections.
Election officials usually respond to these allegations by pointing out that there are almost no prosecutions of fraudulent noncitizen voters. Reuters has noted that even the pro-Trump Heritage Foundation’s database of election crimes listed only 24 instances of noncitizens voting in U.S. elections from 2003 to 2023.
When confronted with allegations on noncitizens voting in Utah, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, the state’s top election official, initiated a monthslong review of Utah’s approximately 2.1 million registered voters. She and her team found one “confirmed noncitizen.” Just one. And that one noncitizen, while registered, had never voted.
Idaho, a state of one million voters, ran similar tests in 2024, and they found 36 “very likely” registered noncitizens. That may seem like a lot until you view it in light of claims that statewide elections are altered by such anomalies. Some, but not all, of those 36 people have previously voted, the secretary of state, Phil McGrane, said, but “out of the million-plus registered voters we started with, we’re down to 10 thousandths of a percent” of the overall count — not even close to affecting the outcome.
Louisiana’s investigation in 2025 netted some 390 noncitizen registrants, 79 of whom had voted in at least one election over the last several decades (out of 2.9 million registrants). Just a few weeks ago, Montana found 23 possible noncitizen registrants (out of approximately 785,000 people registered). And Georgia, in some ways the model for these investigations, found in its 2024 audit 20 registered noncitizens (out of 8.2 million registrations). In my four years in office in Maricopa County overseeing voter registration, I came across a total of two possible instances of noncitizens voting out of some 2.5 million registered voters.
Some politicians are trying to exploit even these small numbers. In Michigan, the Macomb County clerk, Anthony Forlini, who is running for the top election office in the state, the secretary of state, recently announced to great fanfare that he’d found 15 noncitizens on his county’s voter rolls of over 724,000 registered voters. The incumbent secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, then tasked her team with investigating the 15 files. It found that three of the people were U.S. citizens, four were previously removed from voter rolls, four were under further investigation and four do seem to be noncitizens.
These investigations affirm what is simply common sense. People largely aren’t willing to risk their status in the United States — the land of economic opportunity — for the ability to cast one more vote out of hundreds of thousands or millions in a state and hundreds of millions in the country.
The investigations also suggest that many politicians and public interest groups, all of which have access to these reports, may not actually care that much about election security. The constant talk of noncitizen voting is more likely about scoring political points and bolstering fund-raising.
For President Trump, the myth of noncitizens voting is part of the broader story he’s concocted to avoid accepting that he lost to Joe Biden in 2020. But it also appears to be about this fall’s election. Mr. Trump may well intend to send the F.B.I. to run elections in Fulton County, Ga., or the Department of Homeland Security to seize ballot tabulators from Los Angeles County.
I don’t think it’s likely he will do so. But I also wouldn’t have predicted that the F.B.I. would take hundreds of boxes of 2020 election materials from Fulton County, as it did last week. And I certainly wouldn’t have predicted that Republicans would attempt to derail the electoral count on Jan. 6, 2021.
Everyone — Democrats and Republicans — should use the new state-level proof that noncitizen voting is virtually nonexistent to push back against the real danger to our democracy: craven politicians using the issue to undermine our free and fair elections.
The Fraud Scorecard
- Utah: 1 registered, 0 voted, 2.1 million registered voters
- Idaho: 36 “likely”, voted uncertain, one million voters
- Louisiana: 390 noncitizen registrants, 79 of whom had voted in at least one election over the last several decades (out of 2.9 million registrants).
- Montana: 23 possible noncitizen registrants (out of approximately 785,000 people registered).
- Georgia: A 2024 audit found 20 registered noncitizens (out of 8.2 million registrations).
- Michigan: The Macomb County clerk, Anthony Forlini announced to great fanfare that he’d found 15 noncitizens on his county’s voter rolls of over 724,000 registered voters. The incumbent secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, investigated the 15 files. Three were U.S. citizens, four were previously removed from voter rolls, four were under further investigation and four do seem to be noncitizens.
- Arizona: In Maricopa County overseeing voter registration, there was a total of two possible instances of noncitizens voting out of some 2.5 million registered voters.
What About California?
The League of Women Voters reports Noncitizens not eligible to register to vote in California
CLAIM: California is registering noncitizens to vote.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Voter registration in California is restricted to U.S. citizens who are state residents and at least 18 years old on Election Day. While one city, San Francisco, does allow noncitizen parents to vote in local school board races, those voters go through a separate registration process and the policy doesn’t allow them to vote in any other elections.
THE FACTS: As the Nov. 8 election approaches, some social media users are reviving concerns about people who are not legal U.S citizens being allowed to vote.
Among the latest false claims is that California, the nation’s most populous state, is registering noncitizens ahead of the decisive midterms.
“Now that California is registering non-citizens to vote and has refused to cooperate with the federal election integrity program, all votes from California should be nullified and federal representatives from the state be removed from Congress,” reads one post that’s been frequently shared across social media platforms in the weeks leading up to the election. “All in favor raise your hand.”
But California state law requires that a person be a valid U.S. citizen, state resident and at least 18 years of age on Election Day to register to vote, according to the secretary of state’s office, which oversees elections. They must also not be currently serving a prison term for a felony conviction or found mentally incompetent to vote by a judge.
Joe Kocurek, a spokesperson for California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, noted the claims can be found on Twitter going back to at least 2018.
“The claims here are false,” he said by email. “California does not allow noncitizens to vote in elections.”
While some noncitizens were erroneously allowed to register and cast ballots in California in 2018, that was an isolated incident. At the time, at least 1,500 people ineligible to vote — including some noncitizens — were enrolled due to what state officials said was a “processing error” as it launched a new “motor voter” program automatically registering voters when they seek a drivers license. About six were found to have voted in that year’s midterm elections.
Jonathan Mehta Stein, executive director of California Common Cause, a government accountability group, says San Francisco has a special process for school board races, in which noncitizen parents are kept in a separate voter registration file.
“There is no mixing,” he said by email. “Noncitizen parents cannot vote in federal, state, or city elections. Just school board races.”
Driver’s Licenses for Immigrants and Voting
Also consider a fact sheet on Driver’s Licenses for Immigrants and Voting
Fact Sheet
- Noncitizens have nothing to gain—and everything to lose—if they vote illegally.
- It is ILLEGAL for noncitizens to vote in a federal election. As of 1996, federal law
explicitly prohibits noncitizens from casting a ballot in federal elections. - States have multiple systems in place to prevent noncitizen voting, and
noncitizens face HARSH PENALTIES for voting unlawfully.
. Illegally voting in a federal election can result in a fine and up to five years
in prison.
. A noncitizen found guilty of this crime may face deportation and revocation of their legal status under immigration law.
.Falsely claiming U.S. citizenship for the purpose of registering to vote may also result in deportation or denial of future immigration status. - Studies have found no evidence of widespread noncitizen voting in U.S.
elections. - According to the CATO Institute, “noncitizens don’t illegally vote in detectable
numbers,” and claims about noncitizen voter fraud are “bogus.” - A recent search of the Heritage Foundation election fraud database found only 85 cases involving allegations of noncitizen voting from 2002 to 2023.
- A Brennan Center for Justice study of 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 elections found
that votes election officials suspected (not proven) to be cast by noncitizens
accounted for just 0.0001 percent of the total votes cast.
SAVE Act Five Things
The Bipartisan Policy Organization comments Five Things to Know About the Save Act
Both parties agree that voter registration should permit all eligible citizens—and only eligible citizens—to register and vote in federal elections. Although instances of noncitizen registration and voting are rare, the SAVE Act’s goal of ensuring that only citizens can register to vote is important. But there are easier, more cost-effective ways to improve citizenship verification that don’t create new barriers for eligible voters.
Here’s what you need to know about requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote:
- Citizenship is already a requirement to vote, and instances of noncitizen voting are rare.
- Many eligible citizens don’t have access to documentary proof of citizenship.
- There are better ways to verify citizenship that put the responsibility on government, not voters.
- The SAVE Act could have unintended consequences for election officials and election administration.
- The SAVE Act needs more time and resources to be implemented well.
Citizenship is already a requirement to vote, and instances of noncitizen voting are rare
Many state election offices began using U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ (USCIS) Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements program in 2025 to verify voter citizenship. Records from this program show that just 0.04% of voter verification cases are returned as noncitizens.
[Note: the miniscule error rates is registering to vote. And there are often errors in the alleged errors due to similar names.]The actual rate of noncitizens may be even smaller than this data suggests. Travis Couty, Texas, for example, reported that 25% of the voters that USCIS flagged as potential noncitizens had already provided proof of citizenship when registering to vote.
[It’s smaller still due to similar names.]Many eligible citizens don’t have documentary proof of citizenship
According to the U.S. Department of State, examples of primary citizenship evidence include a birth certificate, a U.S. passport, a Consular Report of Birth Abroad, a Certificate of Citizenship, or a Naturalization Certificate.
Although at least one of these documents are in theory available to most citizens, not all voters have them readily available. According to recent studies:
- 9% of all eligible voters do not have, or do not have easy access to, documentary proof of citizenship.
- 52% of registered voters do not have an unexpired passport with their current legal name.
- 11% of registered voters do not have access to their birth certificate.
Additionally, birth certificates often lack information that matches a person’s current identity. For instance, someone who has changed their name through marriage or court order may need to present a third document (such as a marriage certificate) to join their proof of citizenship (e.g., birth certificate) with their proof of identity (e.g., driver’s license), further decreasing the likelihood that a voter will have the appropriate documentation on hand to successfully register.
Even if voters were to provide documentary proof of citizenship, verifying the authenticity of those documents is an inherently complex task, one that election officials and motor vehicle departments often do not have the resources or training to perform.
Case Study Kansas
Kansas offers a case study of how a documentary proof requirement would likely play out in practice. Before the law took effect, noncitizen registration in Kansas was exceedingly rare, accounting for about 0.002% of registered voters. After adoption, the documentary proof of citizenship requirement prevented roughly 31,000 eligible citizens, or 12% of all applicants, from registering to vote.
Purposeful Ambiguities and Complications
For voters who register by mail, the SAVE Act requires documentary proof of citizenship to be delivered in person to an election office, effectively nullifying the benefits of mail registration.
At the same time, the legislation does not clearly specify how documentary proof must be submitted for online registration, leaving election officials without clear guidance on acceptable delivery methods. This ambiguity increases the risk of inconsistent implementation across jurisdictions and places election officials in the position of making high-stakes judgment calls without clear statutory direction.
The SAVE Act also exposes election officials to heightened legal and personal risk. It establishes criminal penalties for officials who register an applicant who fails to present documentary proof of citizenship, even if that applicant is in fact a U.S. citizen. The bill also authorizes private individuals to sue election officials under the same circumstances.
Together, these provisions could encourage overly cautious behavior (e.g., not accepting applications to register when an election official isn’t familiar with the type of documentation provided) and further strain an election workforce already facing high turnover and burnout.
What’s the SAVE Act Really About?
- Make it harder to vote by mail
- Make it harder for women to register
- Make it harder for minorities to register
That’s it. And it’s obvious.
But if you have TWS and are wearing a MAGA hat you will never admit the obvious.
Trump to Issue Executive Order
Truth Social Link: The Democrats refuse to vote for Voter I.D., or Citizenship. The reason is very simple — They want to continue to cheat in Elections. This was not what our Founders desired. I have searched the depths of Legal Arguments not yet articulated or vetted on this subject, and will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not! Also, the People of our Country are insisting on Citizenship, and No Mail-In Ballots, with exceptions for Military, Disability, Illness, or Travel. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
Truth Social Second Post
Truth Social Link: We cannot let the Democrats get away with NO VOTER I.D. any longer. These are horrible, disingenuous CHEATERS. They have all sorts of reasons why it shouldn’t be passed, and then boldly laugh in the backrooms after their ridiculous presentations. If it weren’t such a serious matter, it would be considered a TOTAL JOKE! No Voter I.D. is even crazier, and more ridiculous, than Men playing in Women’s Sports, Open Borders, or Transgender for Everyone. Republicans must put this at the top of every speech — It is a CAN’T MISS FOR RE-ELECTION IN THE MIDTERMS, AND BEYOND! Even Democrat Voters agree, 85%, that there should be Voter I.D. It’s only the Political “Leaders,” Crooked Losers like Schumer and Jeffries, that have no shame, and explain why it’s “racist,” and every other thing that they can think of. This is an issue that must be fought, and must be fought, NOW! If we can’t get it through Congress, there are Legal reasons why this SCAM is not permitted. I will be presenting them shortly, in the form of an Executive Order. I hope the Supreme Court realizes, as they “painstakingly” review the very simple topic of Country Saving Tariffs (Those same Tariffs that have been used, by other Countries, against the U.S.A. to drain it of its Treasure and Security — for many years!), and all sorts of other things, that are making our Country Rich, Powerful, and Safe Again, that these Corrupt and Deranged Democrats, if they ever gain power, will not only be adding two States to our roster of 50, with all of the baggage thereto, but will also PACK THE COURT with a total of 21 Supreme Court Justices, THEIR DREAM, which they will submit easily and rapidly when they immediately move to terminate the Filibuster, probably in their first week, or sooner. Our Country will never be the same if they allow these demented and evil people to knowingly, and happily, destroy it. Thank you for your attention to this matter — SAVE AMERICA! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
As noted above, that is all a pack of lies in a nonsensical rant about many things.
The courts would immediately strike such an order, and they should.
Voter ID vs the SAVE Act
Like it or not, the Constitution grants states the authority to run elections. It is unclear if the SAVE Act is even constitutional. I suggest that it isn’t.
For discussion, please see The Conversation Article on the SAVE America Act.
Constitutional or not, the act is purposely flawed.
Executive Order Dead on Arrival
Trump’s Executive Order idea will immediately be dead on arrival on many grounds.
For the record, I support voter ID. I do not think non-citizens should vote at all, but especially in Federal elections.
I also believe mail-in voting in some states is flawed.
However, illegal executive orders and the SAVE act have nothing to do with fraud and everything to do with suppression of voting of groups legally entitled to vote.
Bottom Line Is Desperation
The bottom line is desperation. Trump is getting hammered in the polls.
Rather than change policies voters are upset with, Trump wants to make it harder for people to vote and to intimidate those who do vote.
Humor of the Day
What Are the SAVE Act Odds?
Fortunately, the odds the SAVE Act passes is only 13 percent.
The Odds Trump gets smacked in court for an illegal executive order are approximately 100 minus the odds of the SAVE Act passing. That’s about 87 percent.
Democrats 83 Percent likely to Win the House
For discussion of recent polls, please see Democrats 83 Percent likely to Win the House. Where Is the Floor for Trump?
Let’s discuss some recent polls, by issue.
Expect more Trump desperation, because it’s coming.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
