Is a war with Iran too late to stop?
U.S. Military Moves Into Place for Possible Strikes in Iran
The New York Times reports U.S. Military Moves Into Place for Possible Strikes in Iran
The rapid buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East has progressed to the point that President Trump has the option to take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, administration and Pentagon officials said, leaving the White House with high-stakes choices about pursuing diplomacy or war.
Mr. Trump has given no indication that he has made a decision about how to proceed. But the drive to assemble a military force capable of striking Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles and accompanying launch sites has continued this week despite indirect talks between the two nations on Tuesday, with Iran seeking two weeks to come back with fleshed out proposals for a diplomatic resolution.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Iran give up its nuclear program, including agreeing not to enrich any more uranium. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, whose country would potentially take part in an attack, has been pushing for action to weaken Iran’s ability to launch missiles at Israel.
Israeli forces, which have been on heightened alert for weeks, have been making more preparations for a possible war, and a meeting of Israel’s security cabinet was moved to Sunday from Thursday, according to two Israeli defense officials.
Many administration officials have expressed skepticism about the prospects of reaching a diplomatic deal with Tehran. The indirect talks on Tuesday in Geneva ended with what Iran’s foreign minister said was agreement on a “set of guiding principles.” U.S. officials said the two sides made progress but added that big gaps remain.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened that Iran must meet his terms or face severe consequences. But another attack, eight months after a 12-day war in which Israel and the United States assaulted military and nuclear sites across Iran, would potentially carry substantial risks, including that Iran would respond with a ferocious barrage of missile strikes on Israel and on U.S. forces in the region.
For a president who ran for office promising to keep the United States out of wars, Mr. Trump is now considering what would be at least the seventh American military attack in another country in the past year, and his second on Iran. Last June, after striking three Iranian nuclear sites, Mr. Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.” But now he is considering sending U.S. military back to continue the job.
But unlike the U.S.-Israeli assault last June, Mr. Trump’s objectives now are less clear.
The U.S. military buildup includes dozens of refueling tankers, rushed to the region by United States Central Command, more than 50 additional fighter jets, and two aircraft carrier strike groups, complete with their accompanying destroyers, cruisers and submarines, U.S. officials said.
The American buildup also includes dozens of additional F-35, F-22 and F-16 fighter jets that have been flowing from the United States to Europe and onward to the Middle East in recent days, according to flight tracking data and U.S. officials.
Dozens of refueling planes, vital for a prolonged air campaign, have also been moved forward, those officials say.
The second aircraft carrier, the Gerald Ford, and its three destroyer escorts could be in the Mediterranean by the weekend or early next week, military officials said. The Ford is likely to be deployed initially near the coast of Israel to defend Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities and towns, officials said.
Senior national security officials have told the president that any operation that aims to change the Iranian leadership is not guaranteed to be a success, the officials said.
U.S. Gathers the Most Air Power in the Mideast Since the 2003 Iraq Invasion
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Gathers the Most Air Power in the Mideast Since the 2003 Iraq Invasion
The U.S. is ready to take action against Iran, but President Trump hasn’t decided whether to order strikes or—if he does order them—whether the aim would be to halt Iran’s already-battered nuclear program, wipe out its missile force or try to topple the regime.
Over the past few days, the U.S. has continued to move cutting-edge F-35 and F-22 jet fighters toward the Middle East, according to flight-tracking data and a U.S. official. A second aircraft carrier loaded with attack and electronic-warfare planes is on the way. Command-and-control aircraft, which are vital for orchestrating large air campaigns, are inbound. And critical air defenses have been deployed to the region in recent weeks.
The firepower will give the U.S. the option of carrying out a sustained, weekslong air war against Iran instead of the one-and-done “Midnight Hammer” strike the U.S. carried out in June against three Iranian nuclear sites, U.S. officials said.
Representatives from the U.S. and Iran met in Geneva this week to negotiate a possible deal over Iranian enrichment of uranium. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said there had been “a little bit of progress” in those talks, but added, “We’re still very far apart on some issues.” Iran is expected to offer a more detailed proposal to the U.S. in the next few weeks, Leavitt said.
Trump has received several briefings on his military options should he choose to strike, all of them designed to maximize damage to Iran’s regime and its regional proxies, U.S. officials said.
The options include a campaign to kill scores of Iranian political and military leaders, with the goal of overthrowing the government, U.S. and foreign officials said, as well as an air attack that would be limited to striking targets including nuclear and ballistic-missile facilities. Both would involve a potentially weekslong operation.
Given the uncertainties, some former military officers said a diplomatic agreement could be preferable to war. [Only Some?!]
Trump has repeatedly threatened an attack on Iran should negotiations fail. “I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal,” he told reporters Monday.
Eliot Cohen, who led a study of the use of air power in Desert Storm for the Air Force and is now a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that a punishing air campaign might try to weaken Iran’s leadership in a way that surviving members of the elite would agree to a far-reaching accommodation with Washington.
“If what Trump really wants to do is affect the regime and set back its ability to use missiles to attack American bases, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, it would probably have to be an intense operation that would last weeks or possibly months,” he said.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
