My base case, a Trump capitulation, is nearly at hand. Major money to Iran.
Accord Will Kickstart Toughest Phase of Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Deal With Iran Is Close, but Accord Will Kickstart Toughest Phase of Talks
The U.S., Iran and the chief mediator Pakistan all agreed Friday that a peace deal to end the war was nearly complete, though an initial agreement would only kick-start the hardest part of nuclear negotiations over the coming months.
A senior Trump administration official said he was around 80% confident that a deal would be reached in the next few days. It would include an Iranian commitment not to develop or procure a nuclear weapon and Tehran’s promise that it would destroy its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the official said.
The deal will be structured in a way that Iran receives sanctions relief and economic benefits for the specific steps it takes to wind back its nuclear program, according to the official. If Iran decommissions its nuclear sites, ends its enrichment program and stops funding proxy militia groups—like Hezbollah in Lebanon—it could see broad sanctions relief, which would be a boon to the country’s beleaguered economy.
The signing of an initial agreement would open up a 60-day period during which Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. would wind back a blockade of Iran’s ports and commerce.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said a memorandum of understanding “has never been closer,” while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached.”
Iranian officials warned however that a final decision hadn’t been taken on the deal. “We are in the final stages of reviewing the text of the agreement internally,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said.
UAE to Unlock Billions of Dollars for Iran
Reuters reports, UAE to Unlock Billions of Dollars for Iran
The United Arab Emirates has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, four sources said, in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state during the U.S.-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic.
Word of the move, which has not been previously reported, coincides with the final stages of broader negotiations between Tehran and Washington on ending the war, talks that diplomats say could involve the release of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks under U.S. sanctions.
Two regional sources told Reuters the UAE had agreed to release a total of $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered.
Two other sources with knowledge of the arrangement put the total funds involved at $20 billion, adding that the move had been agreed in return for a halt to Iranian attacks on the UAE. One of the sources with knowledge of the arrangement also said a first tranche of $3 billion had already been made available.Reuters could not establish whether the funds earmarked for the transfers belong to the UAE or originate in long-blocked Iranian accounts in the UAE banking system, or elsewhere.
“The UAE’s foreign policy is guided by promoting de-escalation and reducing tensions across the region, while advancing lasting peace and stability,” the official said. “The UAE supports efforts, including those undertaken by the United States, to protect the peoples of the region from the repercussions of conflict.”
The arrangement signals a striking pivot from the open animosity of UAE-Iran relations through much of the war, when Iranian attacks emptied Dubai’s hotels, drove some expatriates to flee and shook the reputation for safety that is central to the country’s position as a premier business hub.
One of the sources with knowledge of the arrangement said the move offered a way to help solve the conflict between the U.S. and Iran without either side crossing its red line: Iran can claim it extracted compensation for war damages, Washington can insist it paid nothing, and Abu Dhabi obtains its own security and Dubai’s hub status, while framing the move as an investment in rebuilding regional trust.
The other source with knowledge of the arrangement said that in return for the disbursement, Iran would halt missile and drone attacks on the UAE, and there would be a rebuilding of bilateral ties, including intelligence sharing and economic cooperation.
The source added that Iran had approached at least two other Gulf Arab countries to make a similar arrangement.
Sizeable Iranian Assets in Dubai
The UAE-Iranian arrangement is set to unfold against a complex financial backdrop potentially involving Dubai, the UAE’s main commercial hub and one of Tehran’s most critical economic lifelines.
Dubai’s banks have long held substantial Iranian-linked deposits, much of them now immobilized under U.S. sanctions that police the global dollar-clearing system and expose any foreign bank dealing with blacklisted Iranian entities to being cut off from the American financial network.
On April 11, a senior Iranian source said the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets held in Qatar and other foreign banks, although a U.S. official swiftly denied the assertion.
The source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that unfreezing the assets was “directly linked to ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”, a key issue in talks aimed at ending the conflict.
Capitulation
Trump says no funds for Iran, Reuters says otherwise.
Trump will shove this under the rug by claiming “No US funding” or whatever. It doesn’t matter.
I have been in the deal camp for months, believing that Trump would eventually cave in.
Unless Israel quickly kills this somehow, I think a deal is finally at hand.
What Did Trump Gain by This?
Nothing. Iran agreed to even more favorable deal before Trump opted for war.
And Obama secured a much more favorable deal before that.
Before and After
My Base Case
Given strategic oil drawdowns, Iran’s ability to escalate, and Trump’s unwillingness to launch a major troop commitment, Trumpian capitulation has been my base case for months.
Israel will attempt to wreck this, but too many forces in the region want a deal and US voters never wanted war in the first place.
In the process, Trump will have alienated the warmongers like Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and the Wall Street Journal.
Trump previously alienated the anti-war wing of the party.
Anything to preserve Trump’s ego. Iran threw Trump a bone.
But what about passage fees?
Confirmed Fees Says Iran
If accurate, Trump’s capitulation is even greater than I expected.
Signs of a Deal
Flashback May 31: Frustrated Trump Ups Terms for a Deal with Iran. What’s Going On?
Nothing Has Changed
The fact that Trump upped the terms of the deal is just a sign of more Trump delusion that he can win the war with demands.
It’s also a sign of huge pushback by Israel and US warmongers who don’t want a deal at all.
This does not change the fact that Trump still has the same three options he has had since the ceasefire started on April 7 2026.
Trump’s Three Options
- Military Escalation
- Wait Iran Out
- Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
Military Escalation Option Is Flawed
A military operation to remove Iran’s nuclear material could take years with no guarantee of success. Indeed, I would expect this to fail just like we failed in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
The US production of defense systems is running low. The US and the Mideast is defending against $30,000 drones with much more expensive options that are in short supply.
Importantly, it is Iran, not the US, with huge escalation threats. Iran, if attacked, could go after desalinization plants in the region. Literally, the entire nation of Saudi Arabia would have to evacuate in days if its desalinization plants were hit.
Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
When you throw away every option that doesn’t work, you are left with options that will work. That is option three, no matter how distasteful.
Trump thinks he is being cute by increasing his demands. But Iran will either laugh or up its demands in response.
It is Trump who is desperate for a deal, not Iran.
I had been discussing those three options for months, not just recently.
At some point, Trump was destined to cut losses.
Trump’s Stated Preference Today Is to Steal Iran’s Oil, Literally
Yesterday, I commented Trump’s Stated Preference Today Is to Steal Iran’s Oil, Literally
Trump made his most believable statement ever today.
The Big Lie Then the Truth
- Big Lie: They [Iran] is really in submission. They just don’t know it yet.
- Big Truth: Look, my preference has always been take Kharg Island. [Iran’s major oil export terminal]. … I don’t know that America has the stomach for it to be honest with you. We would make a fortune. But I don’t know that America has the stomach. I think they’d like to see us come home. But we did it with Venezuela. We’ve taken millions and millions of barrels out of Venezuela.
Mission Changes
- At start of war: Regime Change, full surrender
- Early Phase: Get the deal Obama had
- Mid phase: Open the Strait that was open before Trump started the stupid war
- Now: Sell a strategic loss as a win
Trump’s New Mission
Trump needs to convince voters that he got something out of this self-created inflationary mess.
He needs to sell a strategic loss as a win.
MAGA will go along with the charade. Independent and swing voters won’t.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
