Iran is one of the least popular wars in history.
The Least Popular War Since Vietnam
Please consider The Least Popular War Since Vietnam by Lakshya Jain.
Before any politician makes a major policy change, they may want to ask themselves one simple question: Who are we helping with this?
Had Donald Trump asked himself that question before launching a war with Iran, he could have prevented what’s likely to become the biggest electoral cataclysm a political party has seen in a generation. New polling from The Argument shows that the conflict is even more toxic than George W. Bush’s war in Iraq, with only 33% of voters thinking it was right to enter, versus 55% saying it was wrong.
Voters are not OK with this war. In fact, the conflict in the Middle East has been so disastrous for Republicans that it’s allowed Democrats to open up a 6-percentage-point lead in voter trust on foreign policy. That’s the biggest lead the party has held in the year we’ve been tracking this metric, and it’s up from the 1-point deficit it faced on this issue in May, before the ceasefire with Iran collapsed.
Who Do Voters Trust on Foreign Policy
Fundamentally, I think Americans hate this war so much because of what it’s doing to their pocketbooks. It’s hard not to notice the inverse correlation that Trump’s approval rating has with gas prices. (It’s also important to point out that though this tracks with the empirical literature on the correlation between gas prices and approval, Trump is probably paying an outsized penalty because the price shock was a direct result of his specific actions.)
Democrats More Trusted on Every Issue but Crime
By itself, the deepening quagmire in the Middle East would be an unwelcome headache. But when it’s combined with a spiraling cost-of-living crisis, an unpopular trade war, and a chaotic and toxic immigration enforcement agenda, the picture is nothing short of disastrous for Republicans heading into the midterm elections. In fact, among likely voters, trust in Republicans now trails trust in Democrats on every single issue except crime.
For a while, Republican leaders have hoped that Democrats would be dragged down by perceptions that the party is too far to the left. As recently as this summer, in fact, they might have been justified in this expectation. Republicans were actually perceived as less extreme than Democrats in our July poll. Back then, 47% of likely voters said the Democratic Party was too far to the left, while 45% said the Republican Party was too far to the right.
But now the environment has deteriorated so badly for Republicans that this is no longer true.
More Voters Think Republicans Are Too Extreme
As a result, Democratic odds of taking the Senate have never looked better, with deep-red states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska moving into play as Republican strength in the Midwest evaporates. Combined with a rebellion among Hispanic voters and a polling lead that Mary Peltola continues to hold in Alaska, Republicans find themselves outright underdogs in the Senate for the first time in the cycle.
This was unthinkable a year ago, given that Democrats have to flip at least two seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Pundits and analysts alike have a tendency to overdetermine results after they have happened and tell the story of an election with far more confidence than that story really deserved. But let me be clear: The current unpopularity of the Republican Party is the result of a series of entirely avoidable actions taken by the president. Trump entered office as popular as ever, and he has proceeded to summarily squander that popularity through a sequence of unforced errors.
Without a serious and sudden reversal in fortune, Trump is about to send his political party off of an electoral cliff.
Not Just the War
The war in Iran is the center of Trump’s mistakes.
However, Trump’s tariff policy and immigration policy are also unpopular.
Voters understand these three critical errors are all adding to inflation.
Add data centers to the mix of Republican problems.
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Republicans are losing on every key idea except crime. And it shows up in the polls.
Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
