Republicans lost 15-17 seats in their foolish gerrymander war. North Carolina is a standout.
Dummymander Post-Mortem
Republicans gerrymandered North Carolina twice. One in 2023, then again in 2025 on Trump’s demand.
They lost all five seats and will likely lose two more.
Cook Political has a Post-Mortem on 2026
Democrats easily picked up six districts thanks to their gerrymander in California and a new map in Utah. Republicans, meanwhile, may win just three districts that had been drawn to favor them: one in Texas, one in Tennessee, and — depending on the results of the December runoff — one more in Louisiana.
And in North Carolina, Republicans’ map manifested as a true dummymander, as former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won the Senate race by a landslide and Republican voter turnout collapsed across the state.
Ironically, this cycle could have been even worse for Republicans if members of their own party hadn’t blocked efforts to gerrymander two more states. Had proposed maps passed in South Carolina and Indiana, Democrats would have been in a position to flip even more GOP seats.
Under the proposed map in South Carolina that failed in the state Senate, Democratic Sen.-elect Annie Andrews would have carried all but one of the state’s seven districts.
Republicans also may have suffered more losses in Indiana, if their proposed gerrymander had passed the state Senate. An analysis of the GOP map in Indiana done by one source showed that Democratic House candidates would have won all but one district in Indiana.
Queer Result in Tennessee
In the truly hilarious category, please note Victoria Broderick flipped a deep red district to become Tennessee’s first out queer Congressperson
Democrat Victoria Broderick not only won her race last week to become Tennessee’s first out queer member of Congress, but she also unseated an eight-term Republican who beat her by more than 40 points in 2024.
And she did it all with less than $100,000.
Affordability is one major focus for the mother of two. “Rich people aren’t thinking about milk and eggs, but anyone who’s working class is thinking about that price,” Broderick told WPLN. News. “I’m one of them… I drive into Alabama so that I can save money on groceries.”
She also told Axios that she hopes her victory will inspire Democrats to invest more in Tennessee. “Tennessee is not a red state,” she said. “It’s a nonvoting gerrymandered state.”
Analysts across the country were stunned by Broderick’s race as they watched the results come in. The district, which went for Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024, was never supposed to be competitive.
Non-Voting Gerrymandered State
“Tennessee is not a red state. It’s a nonvoting gerrymandered state,” said Broderick.
That is a keen observation. It happened with Hispanics in Texas and a Senate race in Mississippi.
Across the country, Trump is personally responsible for increasing turnouts of Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, Lesbians, and Queers.
See You in DC!
Texas Gerrymander Goal +5 Result -1
According to The Texas Tribune, Texas lawmakers redrew five Democratic seats to favor Donald Trump by at least 10 percentage points, aiming to pick up 5 House seats.
Cook Political noted the Texas Gerrymander picked up one Republican seat.
However, Republicans lost two other seats.
Democrat Bobby Pulido defeated Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in South Texas’s 15th Congressional District.
Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won the open 23rd Congressional District formerly held by Republican Tony Gonzales
The net result of the Texas Dummymander was -1.
Florida Net Zero
In May 2026, Governor Ron DeSantis and the Florida Legislature passed a mid-decade congressional map designed to flip up to four Democratic seats and expand the GOP delegation from 20 to 24 seats.
However, following the November 3, 2026 general election, Florida’s U.S. House delegation remained unchanged at 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats
2026 Mid-Decade Redistricting Results by State
| State | Map Creator / Favored Party | Pre-2026 Delegation | 2026 Delegation Result | Net Seat Change | Status & Key Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | Democratic redraw (Prop 50) | 43D – 9R | 48D – 4R | Dem +5 | Dems swept all 5 targeted GOP seats (CA-01, CA-03, CA-06, CA-41, CA-48). |
| North Carolina | GOP Legislature | 4D – 10R | 9D – 5R (4 uncalled per AP) | Dem +5 | GOP redrew NC-01 to oust Dem. Rep. Don Davis, who survived |
| Ohio | Bipartisan compromise / GOP lean | 5D – 10R | 8D – 7R | Dem +3 | Democrats flipped OH-07, OH-10, and OH-15. |
| Texas | GOP Legislature | 13D – 25R | 14D – 24R | Dem +1 | GOP flipped only 1 of 5 targeted seats while losing TX-15 and TX-23. |
| Utah | Court-ordered / Dem lean | 0D – 4R | 1D – 3R | Dem +1 | Democrat Ben McAdams won the redrawn UT-01. |
| Florida | GOP Legislature | 8D – 20R | 8D – 20R | Net 0 | GOP failed to flip any of the 4 targeted seats. |
| Alabama | GOP / Court-mandated | 2D – 5R | 2D – 5R | Net 0 | Partisan split unchanged. |
| Tennessee | GOP Legislature | 1D – 8R | 1D – 8R | Net 0 | GOP flipped TN-09, while Democrat Victoria Broderick flipped TN-04. |
| Louisiana | GOP Legislature | 2D – 4R | 1D – 3R (2 in runoff) | Pending | LA-05 and LA-06 advanced to a December 12 runoff; Democrats currently lead in both. |
Not counting Louisiana, but counting expected results in North Carolina, Democrats gained 17 seats in gerrymandered states.
In Praise of the Unexpected
I said in advance that Republicans would gain nothing from these Gerrymander wars. However, I did not expect such shocking results in Tennessee and elsewhere.
Yet, this is what happens when you start stupid wars, claim gasoline prices are a small price to pay, make stupid energy promises, and then seek to rig the results via a SAVE Act (that failed), and Dummymandeing that outright backfired.
Without researching, I doubt I agree with Victoria Broderick on many, if any, economic policies.
Yet, we should all be sick enough of Trump’s lies, his self-serving transactions, his belittling everyone, his racism, his economically stupid tariffs, his unconstitutional actions, his crassness, his promotion of racist Stephen Miller, and his protection of rapists and pedophiles, including himself, to praise this result.
Trump Destroyed the Republican Party
The GOP will have to remake itself. And the greater the political humiliations, the sooner that can happen.
Even +17 Trump districts had enough. Heck, Broderick lost by 40 points in 2024. Wow. That should tell you something.
Yet, I caution Democrats that being sick of Trump is not an embrace of more spending, more free money, and more of all the reasons Trump beat Harris.
There is sensible policy ground somewhere, and Democrats need to find it.
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Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock
